Roscommon 17:55 RESULTED
31 Aug 2026

Monday 31 August Lidan Handicap

Lidan Handicap · 0m7f94y

Official Result

Lidan Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Goal Exceeded (GB) Adam Caffrey · Adrian McGuinness
    7/2F
  2. 11/1
  3. 11/1
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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Eddie G silks
Eddie G
Age 5 · 10-0
-93911
83
80
79
5
10-0
17/2 11/2 17/2
Eddie G has won two of his last five starts, including back-to-back victories, and returns with experience of today's distance and going, but our figures rank him tenth of thirteen and he faces a stiff ask at 140 lb from stall 13.
AI verdict

SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Engines On silks
Engines On
Age 6 · 9-13
1-0000
82
69
82
6
9-13
12/1 25/1 11/1
Engines On won five starts back but has been unplaced in his four subsequent runs, and returning just two days after his last outing raises a fitness query; he has run over today's trip and going, though a stall-eight draw and 139 lb are neutral factors to weigh.
AI verdict

SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

3
Plume Noire silks
Plume Noire
Age 8 · 9-10
00/50-
79
52
88
8
9-10
40/1 25/1 40/1
Winless in her last four starts and absent for 352 days, Plume Noire does arrive with fitness questions, yet she has run over today's distance and going before and a speed rating of 90 gives her strong claims, with our rating of 88 suggesting she is better than her official mark of 79.
AI verdict

SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

4
Earls silks
Earls
Age 9 · 9-8
022237
77
82
82
9
9-8
13/2 15/2 11/2
Placed second on three consecutive occasions in recent starts, Earls arrives here fit on a 13-day turnaround, with experience of today's trip and going, and our rating of 82 marks him as a leading threat; the risk is that he remains winless in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Tokyo Treasure silks
Tokyo Treasure
Age 4 · 9-8
38-720
77
51
74
4
9-8
40/1 28/1 40/1
Tokyo Treasure is winless in his last five starts, and ranked last on our figures with a speed rating well below par, making him hard to fancy at the weights; he does at least return on a quick turnaround with experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 51 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Goal Exceeded silks
Goal Exceeded
Age 5 · 9-7
203144
76
84
79
5
9-7
10/3 4/1 11/4
Ranked well down the field on our figures, Goal Exceeded faces a stiff ask in a 13-runner field, and two starts without a win — fourth and fourth since his latest success — underline the concern; he has run over today's trip and going before, and a recent outing 22 days ago means he comes here fresh enough.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Gavoo silks
Gavoo
Age 3 · 9-6
492537
80
78
91
3
9-6
10/1 7/1 10/1
Gavoo rates considerably higher than his official mark of 80 suggests, and having run over today's trip and going he arrives with clear conditions experience; third two starts back shows he can hit the frame, though his last six efforts have left him yet to score and that winless run is the obvious concern.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Morehampton silks
Morehampton
Age 3 · 9-5
405093
79
74
81
3
9-5
9/1 13/2 9/1
Morehampton showed up with a third last time out after a string of disappointing efforts, and he has run over today's distance and going before, but he remains winless in recent starts and a trainer in the depths of a 28-run losing run is a concern heading in.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Punica Granatum silks
Punica Granatum
Age 3 · 9-4
0-20U3
78
79
88
3
9-4
9/1 5/1 9/1
Placed third last time out and a second four starts back, Punica Granatum arrives here fit on 16 days' rest, carrying 130 lb from stall one, with experience over today's trip and going boosting her claims; the risk is that she remains yet to win in her last five starts.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Highbury See See silks
Highbury See See
Age 4 · 9-3
504030
72
71
82
4
9-3
10/1 11/1 9/1
Winless in his last six starts and returning after 66 days off, Highbury See See faces a stiff ask, though a third two starts back and a fourth four starts back offer some encouragement, and he has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Merisi Diamond silks
Merisi Diamond
Age 7 · 9-2
0-6731
71
82
80
7
9-2
7/1 11/2 7/1
Merisi Diamond won last time out but that success came 134 days ago, and a seventh and sixth in the two starts before it raise questions about consistency; he has run over today's distance and going, and 128 lb from stall two gives him a workable enough profile, though the fitness query after such a lengthy absence is real.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Mercurial silks
Mercurial
Age 7 · 9-1
29-428
70
66
80
7
9-1
11/1 12/1 9/1
Winless in his last five starts, Mercurial does bring distance and going experience to the table, and a second two starts back hints at residual ability, though an eighth last time out is harder to gloss over; the 127 lb burden won't help his cause from stall five.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Ninth Crusade silks
Ninth Crusade
Age 3 · 9-0
062-63
74
80
77
3
9-0
6/1 FCST 11/2
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 12 of 13 on our figures, Ninth Crusade is hard to fancy, though he does have experience over today's trip and going, and a third last time out offers a crumb of comfort.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Eddie G 17/2 open 7.00 9/1 open 7.00 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 Paddy Power
2 Engines On 12/1 open 29.00 11/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 26.00 12/1 Bet365
3 Plume Noire 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 Bet365
4 Earls 13/2 open 9.50 11/2 open 8.50 13/2 open 8.50 13/2 open 8.50 6/1 open 8.50 6/1 open 8.50 13/2 Bet365
5 Tokyo Treasure 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 Bet365
6 Goal Exceeded 10/3 open 6.50 11/4 open 5.00 3/1 open 5.00 3/1 open 5.50 3/1 open 5.50 3/1 open 5.50 10/3 Bet365
7 Gavoo 10/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 9.50 12/1 open 9.50 12/1 open 9.50 11/1 open 8.00 11/1 open 8.50 12/1 Coral
8 Morehampton 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 Bet365
9 Punica Granatum 9/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 6.00 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.50 9/1 Bet365
10 Highbury See See 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 12.00 10/1 open 12.00 10/1 Bet365
11 Merisi Diamond 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 6.50 15/2 open 6.50 15/2 open 6.50 7/1 open 6.50 7/1 open 6.50 15/2 Coral
12 Mercurial 11/1 open 17.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 11/1 Bet365
13 Ninth Crusade 6/1 11/2 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 6/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Goal Exceeded

Speculative

Goal Exceeded owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

10/3 Adrian McGuinness Adam Caffrey
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Ninth Crusade

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

6/1 · M D O'Callaghan
✓ Value Signal

Tokyo Treasure

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Patrick T Foley
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.7 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
85 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.6 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Goal Exceeded
52.4 10/3
2 13. Ninth Crusade
49.7 6/1
3 4. Earls
49.6 13/2
4 11. Merisi Diamond
49.4 7/1
5 8. Morehampton
49.0 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Ninth Crusade
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

6
Age 5 · 9-7
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 3 · 9-0
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 9 · 9-8
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 7 · 9-2
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 5 · 10-0
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 3 · 9-5
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 3 · 9-4
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾

SR 79 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 3 · 9-6
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 4 · 9-3
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 7 · 9-1
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 6 · 9-13
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Ninth Crusade
Confidence: Speculative

Ninth Crusade (SR:80, 11/2) carries the minimum weight of 9-0 — a meaningful advantage in a competitive 13-runner handicap on good ground — and secures the services of Colin Keane, the field's standout jockey booking at 16% career strike rate from 1,065 runners. The form string 062-63 shows consistent competitiveness at this level, and the trainer M D O'Callaghan operates at a solid 10% from 312 runners. The light weight plus elite jockey combination on a horse rated competitively at SR:80 represents the clearest convergence of signals in the field. Each-way alternative: Goal Exceeded. Main danger: Goal Exceeded — Goal Exceeded (SR:84 — highest in the field, 9/2) is the McGuinness yard's #1 runner with better jockey booking than stablemate Eddie G, and a recent form line of 203144 shows consistent involvement, though DistFit:- and a MarkMv:+10 are legitimate concerns.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 062-63 shows the horse has not won in its last 5 starts; the '3' finish is solid but the sequence lacks a win to back up the 11/2 price in a 13-runner competitive handicap.
  • Goal Exceeded (SR:84, 9/2 favourite) carries a higher speed rating and is shorter in the market with a +10 mark movement, suggesting stronger market confidence in a rival from the same stable as Eddi…
  • Merisi Diamond (SR:82) has drifted only 8% in and shows a recent win in form (0-6731), trained by a 2% handler whose runners rarely deliver — yet the market still respects it, implying Ninth Crusade'…
  • No market support indicator (no 'Mkt:in' flag) for Ninth Crusade suggests the betting market has not moved in its favour today, undermining the case that connections or informed money are backing the…
Shortlist Ninth Crusade, Goal Exceeded, Merisi Diamond, Earls
Each-way: Goal Exceeded Danger: Goal Exceeded

🗺 The Course Race conditions

0m7f94y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Roscommon Track and setting