Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap Stakes · 0m6f0y
SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 9-6 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 67 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Reflect On Glory | 17/2 open 4.50 | 17/2 open 5.00 | 6/1 open 4.50 | 6/1 open 4.50 | 9/1 open 4.50 | 9/1 open 5.50 | 9/1 William Hill |
| 2 Captaincy | 6/5 open 4.00 | 11/10 open 3.50 | 6/5 open 3.75 | 10/11 open 3.75 | 10/11 open 3.75 | 1/1 open 3.25 | 6/5 Bet365 |
| 3 The Mean Fiddler | 11/4 open 3.00 | 5/2 open 2.88 | 11/4 open 2.88 | 11/4 open 2.87 | 11/4 open 2.88 | 11/4 open 3.00 | 11/4 Bet365 |
| 4 Lake Muritz | 22/1 open 21.00 | 20/1 open 23.00 | 22/1 open 21.00 | 22/1 open 21.00 | 20/1 | 22/1 open 19.00 | 22/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Harley | 7/2 open 7.00 | 7/2 open 7.50 | 7/2 open 7.00 | 7/2 open 7.00 | 7/2 open 7.00 | 7/2 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 6 Diamond New Bay | 8/1 open 6.50 | 8/1 open 6.00 | 8/1 open 6.00 | 8/1 open 6.00 | 17/2 open 6.00 | 8/1 open 8.50 | 17/2 William Hill |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Captaincy owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 9-6 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Harley (SR:93, 7/2) combines the most compelling multi-signal case in the field: a significant class drop of two tiers (ClassMv:↓2) meaning this race should be well within reach, confirmed distance fitness (DistFit:+) and crucially a GoingFit:+ on today's good ground — the only runner proven on this going. The market has steamed 34% (Mkt:in34%), suggesting informed money is backing the drop in class, and jockey Daniel Tudhope (18% career strike rate, 1,898 runners) is a meaningful booking. The recent form string 523214 shows consistent mid-field efforts at a higher level; stepping down two tiers off a mark only 2lb above last win (MarkMv:+2) is very manageable. Captaincy leads on SR (92) and market at 15/8 but has the unknown variables of a 87-day absence and unproven distance and going fitness, making Harley's confirmed fitness on both counts the decisive edge. Each-way alternative: The Mean Fiddler. Main danger: Captaincy — Captaincy carries the highest SR (92), is the market favourite at 15/8 with a 21% market-in move, and trainer Clive Cox (17%) with Callum Rodriguez (19%) is a sharp combination — if the 87-day absence hasn't blunted the horse, the class held and SR lead makes it the chief threat.