A winner three starts back and a runner-up two starts back, Noble Horizon arrives fit on 34 days' rest, has run over today's trip and going, and his overall profile makes him our pick despite the 142 lb burden from stall nine.
Form last 63-7126
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
89SR99RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ran well to finish second three starts back but has been out of the frame in his last two starts, and a winner six starts back suggests the consistency is the concern; has run over today's trip and going, and the quick seven-day turnaround from stall one at 142 lb makes this a tough ask.
Form last 6170209
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
73SR94RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last five starts, Circus of Rome nevertheless brings distance and going experience to the table and, rated 96, shapes as a genuine threat from stall two — the chief concern is his sequence of unplaced efforts, which must be reversed here.
Form last 66-5000
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR96RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Auld Toon Loon catches the eye as the top-rated runner in the field, and his experience over today's distance and going is a solid foundation, but he arrives winless in his last five starts and connections will need that fourth last time out to signal a return to the third he posted four starts back.
Form last 6-83784
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
84SR100RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Wahdan's pair of fourths earlier in this sequence show consistent engagement at this level, and he has run over today's distance and going, while a rating of 95 makes him a serious threat; the concern is he remains yet to win in his last six starts.
Form last 6663447
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR95RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Per Contra won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, lending some confidence, though he was a well-beaten eighth three starts back and ranks sixth of ten on ratings, suggesting he faces a stiff enough task from stall four off 127 lb.
Form last 6804831
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR86RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Jez Bomb has back-to-back defeats since a win three starts back, and ranked ninth of ten on our figures he faces a stiff task at the weights, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a reasonable 25-day break.
Form last 6912175
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR80RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked eighth of ten on our figures, Be Patient is hard to fancy at these weights, though his recent form does include two wins in his last five starts — the most recent of which came three starts back — and he has run over today's trip, drawing a shade of encouragement from that third last time out.
Form last 631-123
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
95SR83RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Keep An Eye On It is hard to fancy, though he does bring some genuine recent form — a winner two starts back and placed last time out — and has run over today's going before.
Form last 6-52312
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
84SR78RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Hollywell Stream owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (50) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/1Jane Chapple-HyamKevin Stott
64%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Noble Horizon
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · Oli Rix✓ Value Signal
Jez Bomb
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
22/1 · Sam England◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Be Patient (SR 95, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and carries a favourable 8-13 — a 7lb+ advantage over Noble Horizon and Hollywell Stream on comparable SR levels, making that class-adjusted ability gap even more pronounced. The form string 31-123 shows consistent, progressive form including a recent second at this class, and trainer Edward Bethell runs at an excellent 18% strike rate from over 1,000 runners — a top-tier yard with genuine clout. The market has shortened 19% since opening, indicating informed support, and while distance and going fitness are marked '?' (insufficient sample as a 3-year-old), the step up to 1m2f is a natural progression for a maturing type from a trainer who places horses intelligently.
Each-way alternative: Hollywell Stream.
Main danger: Hollywell Stream — Hollywell Stream (SR 90, 9/2) is the second-highest SR in the field, carries only 9-1 with DistFit:+ confirmed, and trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam runs at 13% with a strong jockey booking in Kevin Stott — the market drift is the one concern, but its age (3) and light weight give it every chance to outrun the SR gap.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Both distance (1m2f) and going fitness are unproven — '?' on both counts for a 3-year-old stepping up in trip, a material double-unknown at Pontefract's stiff, undulating track that exposes stamina q…
Hollywell Stream (SR 90) has drifted out 37% in the market today, which could indicate stable confidence has softened, but Be Patient's modest 19% inward move from 7/2 still leaves it favourite in a…
A 35-day absence combined with unproven form at this trip means Be Patient arrives ring-rusty for a test at a uniquely demanding course where fitness and track-specific experience matter — Jez Bomb a…
Form string 31-123 shows a third last time out prior to the second, suggesting a dip in consistency; at 7/2 favourite there is limited margin for error if the step to 1m2f on an unknown going surface…
ShortlistBe Patient, Hollywell Stream, Noble Horizon, Keep An Eye On It