Listowel 15:42 24 Sep 2026
24 Sep 2026

Today Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle

Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle · 2m0f0y

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AI rates Lenjoleur De Palma Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 7 hours, 43 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Ephesus silks
Ephesus
Age 5 · 12-3
460-79
115
75
119
5
12-3
25/1 20/1 22/1
Winless in his last five starts, Ephesus nevertheless heads this field on ratings and has experience of today's trip and conditions, while a 43-day absence leaves fitness a mild query; the 171 lb burden will demand plenty.
AI verdict

SR 75 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

2
Churchwarden silks
Churchwarden
Age 6 · 11-10
1PP/02
108
104
114
6
11-10
4/1
Churchwarden shaped well when runner-up last time out and has experience of today's trip and conditions, with our rating of 114 marking him down as a serious threat; the worry is a sketchy recent record that includes two pulled-up efforts in his last five starts.
AI verdict

SR 104 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Metamorpheus silks
Metamorpheus
Age 7 · 11-10
3-2422
108
99
110
7
11-10
6/1 5/1 11/2
Metamorpheus has been a model of consistency, finishing second three times and third once in his last five starts, and he has run over today's trip and going before — the chief concern is whether he can finally convert that reliability into a win, having been winless in recent starts, and 52 days off the track adds a fitness query.
AI verdict

SR 99 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Lenjoleur De Palma silks
Lenjoleur De Palma
Age 5 · 11-9
63123-
107
104
104
5
11-9
10/3 3/1 11/4
Third last time out after winning three starts back, Lenjoleur De Palma brings both distance and going experience to the table, but 186 days off the track is a concern, and 163 lb is a hefty burden for a horse ranked fifth of fifteen.
AI verdict

SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Beckistine silks
Beckistine
Age 7 · 11-7
996P-8
105
76
109
7
11-7
16/1 14/1 16/1
Winless in his last five starts and pulling up two back hardly reads as ideal, but Beckistine has experience over today's trip and conditions, carries a workable 161 lb, and a rating of 109 suggests he holds solid claims — the risk is that his recent form makes him hard to trust.
AI verdict

SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

6
Acheron silks
Acheron
Age 5 · 11-5
U-0029
103
67
101
5
11-5
33/1
Winless in his last five starts, Acheron does at least offer a placed effort two runs back to offset the otherwise patchy recent form, though 80 days off and a hefty 159 lb burden are questions he must answer here.
AI verdict

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

7
Mc Swagger silks
Mc Swagger
Age 5 · 11-2
9-U900
100
73
101
5
11-2
SP 12/1 16/1
Winless in his last five starts and yet to convince over the weights carrying 156 lb, Mc Swagger does at least bring distance experience to the table, though 70 days off and a string of unplaced efforts make him a tough sell at this level.
AI verdict

SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

8
Kilt silks
Kilt
Age 5 · 10-13
-14546
97
82
97
5
10-13
14/1 10/1 12/1
Ranked well adrift of the principals on our figures, Kilt faces a stiff ask off 153 lb, and four finishes without a win in recent starts do little to inspire confidence, though he has run over today's trip and returns on a reasonable 27-day freshener.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Superficial silks
Superficial
Age 4 · 10-12
78-0
98
79
98
4
10-12
14/1 10/1 14/1
Winless in his last three starts and returning on just three days' rest, Superficial faces a stiff ask carrying 152 lb, though he has run over today's trip before and an official rating of 98 keeps him competitive in a field of 15.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Jaadil silks
Jaadil
Age 5 · 10-9
12-PF9
93
76
92
5
10-9
9/1 15/2 9/1
Ranked 14 of 15 on our figures, Jaadil is hard to fancy, her recent starts reading a fall and a pull-up before that ninth last time out; 101 days off adds to the doubts, though she has run over today's distance and going and does carry a win in her last five starts.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Rene's Gold silks
Rene's Gold
Age 5 · 10-8
/7-898
92
72
89
5
10-8
16/1 16/1 14/1
Winless in her last four starts, with finishes of eighth, ninth, eighth and seventh, Rene's Gold is hard to fancy ranked last on our figures, and her 148 lb burden adds further to the task, even if she has run over today's trip before.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Dream Shaper silks
Dream Shaper
Age 7 · 10-7
9-318F
91
71
93
7
10-7
25/1 20/1 22/1
Dream Shaper fell last time out and ranks 13th of 15 on our figures, making him difficult to fancy, though he has won in his last five starts and has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Kilbrin Rocco silks
Kilbrin Rocco
Age 7 · 10-6
951-29
90
97
104
7
10-6
10/3 6/1 10/3
Kilbrin Rocco won three starts back and was second two starts back, but comes into this off 58 days without a run and finished ninth last time out, leaving fitness the key question; experience over today's trip and going at least removes any unknown.
AI verdict

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

14
Sayitfirst silks
Sayitfirst
Age 10 · 10-2
29P-80
86
62
100
10
10-2
33/1 20/1 33/1
SR 62 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 62 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

15
Ahellofaman silks
Ahellofaman
Age 4 · 10-0
0756-F
85
61
94
4
10-0
28/1 25/1 22/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 12 of 15 on our figures, Ahellofaman is hard to fancy, though he has run over today's trip and a rating of 94 suggests some latent ability to find if he can simply get round safely after his recent fall.
AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Ephesus 25/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 Bet365
2 Churchwarden 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 Bet365
3 Metamorpheus 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.00 11/2 open 7.00 6/1 Bet365
4 Lenjoleur De Palma 10/3 open 4.50 11/4 open 4.00 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 10/3 Bet365
5 Beckistine 16/1 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 16/1 Bet365
6 Acheron 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 Bet365
7 Mc Swagger 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 16/1 Bet365
8 Kilt 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 Bet365
9 Superficial 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 11.00 16/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 13.00 16/1 Coral
10 Jaadil 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 Bet365
11 Rene's Gold 16/1 open 21.00 14/1 open 17.00 16/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 19.00 15/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 17.00 16/1 Bet365
12 Dream Shaper 25/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 22/1 25/1 Bet365
13 Kilbrin Rocco 10/3 open 7.50 7/2 open 7.00 7/2 open 7.00 7/2 open 7.00 7/2 open 7.00 7/2 open 7.00 7/2 Paddy Power
14 Sayitfirst 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 26.00 33/1 Bet365
15 Ahellofaman 28/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 34.00 22/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 26.00 28/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Lenjoleur De Palma

Live signal

Lenjoleur De Palma owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

10/3 E McNamara Tom Kelly
72% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Churchwarden

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

4/1 · Henry de Bromhead
✓ Value Signal

Ephesus

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Denis Gerard Hogan
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +22.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
85 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.6 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.6 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Lenjoleur De Palma
61.4 10/3
2 2. Churchwarden
57.8 4/1
3 13. Kilbrin Rocco
57.0 10/3
4 3. Metamorpheus
55.2 6/1
5 10. Jaadil
51.8 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Lenjoleur De Palma
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 5 · 11-9
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 104 🐾

SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 7 · 10-6
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 6 · 11-10
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 104 🐾

SR 104 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 7 · 11-10
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 99 🐾

SR 99 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 5 · 10-9
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 5 · 10-13
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 4 · 10-12
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾

SR 79 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 7 · 11-7
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

11
Age 5 · 10-8
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Lenjoleur De Palma
Confidence: Speculative

Lenjoleur De Palma (SR 104, 10/3) is the standout on multiple converging signals. Critically, this is the only runner in the field with both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — proven at today's 2m trip and today's good ground — while carrying 11-9 compared to the joint-rated Churchwarden at 11-10 on a going type (GoingFit:-) it cannot handle. The form string 63123- shows consistent placed efforts culminating in a recent win, and running off MarkMv:+14 — the most modest upward mark adjustment of any leading contender — suggests the handicapper has not over-reacted. E McNamara strikes at 11% from 514 runners, and the market at 10/3 shows strong favouritism in a 15-runner field, justified by the fitting profile. The stable's second string Jaadil is drifting (Mkt:out10%) and has GoingFit:-, confirming Lenjoleur De Palma as the yard's intended winner. Each-way alternative: Kilbrin Rocco. Main danger: Kilbrin Rocco — Kilbrin Rocco (SR 97, 6/1, MarkMv:-9) is running off a mark 9lb below its last win, carries only 10-6 — a meaningful 17lb pull versus top-weight Ephesus — and the GoingFit:~ and DistFit:~ suggest it is not out of its depth on today's conditions, while the McCarthy yard's market support (no drift flagged) is in contrast to stable companion Mc Swagger's 24% drift.

Case against 3 clamped
  • 186-day absence is a significant fitness concern — returning from 6+ months off with jockey Tom Kelly who strikes at only 4% from 57 rides, giving little confidence the stable has found the right par…
  • The form string ends in a dash (63123-) indicating the last recorded run was a pull-up or incomplete effort, which casts doubt on the 'consistent placed efforts culminating in a recent win' narrative…
  • MarkMv:+14 sounds modest but the horse is a 5-year-old already rated 104 — at this mark in a 15-runner competitive handicap at Listowel, the weight-for-age profile and lack of racing experience relat…
Shortlist Lenjoleur De Palma, Kilbrin Rocco, Churchwarden, Kilt
Each-way: Kilbrin Rocco Danger: Kilbrin Rocco

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m0f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
15 Confirmed runners
Listowel Track and setting