Winless in his last five starts, Ephesus nevertheless heads this field on ratings and has experience of today's trip and conditions, while a 43-day absence leaves fitness a mild query; the 171 lb burden will demand plenty.
Form last 6460-79
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
75SR119RPR115OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Churchwarden shaped well when runner-up last time out and has experience of today's trip and conditions, with our rating of 114 marking him down as a serious threat; the worry is a sketchy recent record that includes two pulled-up efforts in his last five starts.
Form last 61PP/02
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
104SR114RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 104 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Metamorpheus has been a model of consistency, finishing second three times and third once in his last five starts, and he has run over today's trip and going before — the chief concern is whether he can finally convert that reliability into a win, having been winless in recent starts, and 52 days off the track adds a fitness query.
Form last 63-2422
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
99SR110RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out after winning three starts back, Lenjoleur De Palma brings both distance and going experience to the table, but 186 days off the track is a concern, and 163 lb is a hefty burden for a horse ranked fifth of fifteen.
Form last 663123-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
104SR104RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and pulling up two back hardly reads as ideal, but Beckistine has experience over today's trip and conditions, carries a workable 161 lb, and a rating of 109 suggests he holds solid claims — the risk is that his recent form makes him hard to trust.
Form last 6996P-8
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
76SR109RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last five starts, Acheron does at least offer a placed effort two runs back to offset the otherwise patchy recent form, though 80 days off and a hefty 159 lb burden are questions he must answer here.
Form last 6U-0029
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
67SR101RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in his last five starts and yet to convince over the weights carrying 156 lb, Mc Swagger does at least bring distance experience to the table, though 70 days off and a string of unplaced efforts make him a tough sell at this level.
Form last 69-U900
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
73SR101RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Ranked well adrift of the principals on our figures, Kilt faces a stiff ask off 153 lb, and four finishes without a win in recent starts do little to inspire confidence, though he has run over today's trip and returns on a reasonable 27-day freshener.
Form last 6-14546
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR97RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last three starts and returning on just three days' rest, Superficial faces a stiff ask carrying 152 lb, though he has run over today's trip before and an official rating of 98 keeps him competitive in a field of 15.
Form last 678-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR98RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked 14 of 15 on our figures, Jaadil is hard to fancy, her recent starts reading a fall and a pull-up before that ninth last time out; 101 days off adds to the doubts, though she has run over today's distance and going and does carry a win in her last five starts.
Form last 612-PF9
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
76SR92RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last four starts, with finishes of eighth, ninth, eighth and seventh, Rene's Gold is hard to fancy ranked last on our figures, and her 148 lb burden adds further to the task, even if she has run over today's trip before.
Form last 6/7-898
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR89RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Dream Shaper fell last time out and ranks 13th of 15 on our figures, making him difficult to fancy, though he has won in his last five starts and has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 69-318F
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR93RPR91OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kilbrin Rocco won three starts back and was second two starts back, but comes into this off 58 days without a run and finished ninth last time out, leaving fitness the key question; experience over today's trip and going at least removes any unknown.
Form last 6951-29
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
97SR104RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 12 of 15 on our figures, Ahellofaman is hard to fancy, though he has run over today's trip and a rating of 94 suggests some latent ability to find if he can simply get round safely after his recent fall.
Form last 60756-F
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR94RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Lenjoleur De Palma owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/3E McNamaraTom Kelly
72%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Churchwarden
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Henry de Bromhead✓ Value Signal
Ephesus
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Denis Gerard Hogan◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Lenjoleur De Palma (SR 104, 10/3) is the standout on multiple converging signals. Critically, this is the only runner in the field with both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — proven at today's 2m trip and today's good ground — while carrying 11-9 compared to the joint-rated Churchwarden at 11-10 on a going type (GoingFit:-) it cannot handle. The form string 63123- shows consistent placed efforts culminating in a recent win, and running off MarkMv:+14 — the most modest upward mark adjustment of any leading contender — suggests the handicapper has not over-reacted. E McNamara strikes at 11% from 514 runners, and the market at 10/3 shows strong favouritism in a 15-runner field, justified by the fitting profile. The stable's second string Jaadil is drifting (Mkt:out10%) and has GoingFit:-, confirming Lenjoleur De Palma as the yard's intended winner.
Each-way alternative: Kilbrin Rocco.
Main danger: Kilbrin Rocco — Kilbrin Rocco (SR 97, 6/1, MarkMv:-9) is running off a mark 9lb below its last win, carries only 10-6 — a meaningful 17lb pull versus top-weight Ephesus — and the GoingFit:~ and DistFit:~ suggest it is not out of its depth on today's conditions, while the McCarthy yard's market support (no drift flagged) is in contrast to stable companion Mc Swagger's 24% drift.
⚖Case against3clamped▾
186-day absence is a significant fitness concern — returning from 6+ months off with jockey Tom Kelly who strikes at only 4% from 57 rides, giving little confidence the stable has found the right par…
The form string ends in a dash (63123-) indicating the last recorded run was a pull-up or incomplete effort, which casts doubt on the 'consistent placed efforts culminating in a recent win' narrative…
MarkMv:+14 sounds modest but the horse is a 5-year-old already rated 104 — at this mark in a 15-runner competitive handicap at Listowel, the weight-for-age profile and lack of racing experience relat…
ShortlistLenjoleur De Palma, Kilbrin Rocco, Churchwarden, Kilt