Southwell (AW) 20:30 24 Sep 2026
Class 5 24 Sep 2026

Today attheraces.com/marketmovers Selling Handicap Stakes

attheraces.com/marketmovers Selling Handicap Stakes · 1m3f24y

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  • 8 declared
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AI rates Bearwith Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 8 hours, 37 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Rodoya silks
Rodoya
Age 4 · 10-2
386-88
70
35
67
4
10-2
28/1 16/1 20/1
Rodoya showed promise with a third five starts back, but her last four outings have brought finishes of eighth, eighth, sixth and eighth, and a trainer without a winner in 28 recent attempts is the main concern.
AI verdict

SR 35 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

2
Bearwith silks
Bearwith
Age 8 · 10-1
491257
69
72
76
8
10-1
4/1 7/1 7/2
Bearwith posted a second three starts back and a win four starts back, showing he can find the front end, and he returns quickly on familiar distance and going; a rating of 76 makes him the one to beat, though his last two runs have been modest.
AI verdict

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Meet Me In Meraki silks
Meet Me In Meraki
Age 5 · 9-10
732521
64
71
70
5
9-10
9/4 32/17 9/4
Meet Me In Meraki arrives in fine nick, winning last time out and finishing second two starts back, with experience over today's trip and going adding confidence; the main risk is whether 136 lb blunts his finishing effort.
AI verdict

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Takeitorleaveit silks
Takeitorleaveit
Age 3 · 9-5
221282
65
65
67
3
9-5
11/2 3/1 5/1
Takeitorleaveit has been a model of consistency, finishing second four of his last six starts with a win four starts back, and he returns just 13 days after his latest run; the risk is that eighth two starts back hints at vulnerability on an off day.
AI verdict

SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Freddy Robinson silks
Freddy Robinson
Age 7 · 9-4
642224
58
62
66
7
9-4
7/1 15/2 13/2
Freddy Robinson arrives on the back of a fourth last time out, though he has been a model of consistency before that with three seconds in his last four starts; yet to score in recent starts, the 130 lb burden from stall seven may test his ability to finally convert.
AI verdict

SR 62 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Cosmic Man silks
Cosmic Man
Age 3 · 9-1
-90873
61
59
63
3
9-1
8/1 15/2 8/1
Winless in his last five starts, Cosmic Man has struggled for consistency and ranks seventh of eight on our figures, making him hard to fancy despite the third last time out and his experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Lord Mayor silks
Lord Mayor
Age 3 · 9-0
93-337
60
66
64
3
9-0
4/1 11/4 7/2
Lord Mayor has shown consistent placing ability — third in three of his last five starts — but remains winless in recent starts and a seventh last time out clouds his claims; he has run over today's trip and going, and carries 126 lb from stall two.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Call Alert silks
Call Alert
Age 3 · 8-5
0540
50
26
45
3
8-5
50/1 28/1 50/1
Winless in her last four starts and ranked last on our figures, Call Alert faces a stiff ask here, though she has experience of today's going and returns after a pleasing 17-day break from stall one.
AI verdict

SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Rodoya 28/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 28/1 Bet365
2 Bearwith 4/1 open 9.00 7/2 open 8.00 7/2 open 8.50 7/2 open 8.50 7/2 open 8.50 7/2 open 8.00 4/1 Bet365
3 Meet Me In Meraki 9/4 open 2.88 9/4 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 open 3.00 9/4 Bet365
4 Takeitorleaveit 11/2 open 5.00 11/2 open 4.00 11/2 open 4.33 11/2 open 4.33 5/1 open 4.33 11/2 open 4.33 11/2 Bet365
5 Freddy Robinson 7/1 open 8.50 13/2 open 10.00 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.00 7/1 Bet365
6 Cosmic Man 8/1 open 8.50 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 Bet365
7 Lord Mayor 4/1 7/2 open 3.75 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 7/2 open 4.33 4/1 Bet365
8 Call Alert 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Bearwith

Speculative

Bearwith owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (40) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 Harriet Bethell Tom Kiely-Marshall(3)
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Meet Me In Meraki

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/4 · David Evans
✓ Value Signal

Call Alert

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · William Muir & Chris Grassick
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
33 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Bearwith
51.7 4/1
2 3. Meet Me In Meraki
50.4 9/4
3 7. Lord Mayor
47.2 4/1
4 4. Takeitorleaveit
47.0 11/2
5 5. Freddy Robinson
46.5 7/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Bearwith
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 5 · 9-10
9/4
★★★☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 8 · 10-1
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 3 · 9-0
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-5
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 7 · 9-4
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 62 🐾

SR 62 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-1
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾

SR 59 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Bearwith
Confidence: Speculative

Bearwith (SR:72, 5/1, 10-1) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries the second-heaviest weight yet remains competitive given the overall SR range. The critical signal is a massive Mkt:in32% move — the strongest market confidence in the field by some margin — combined with Course:W1P2, confirming this horse handles Southwell specifically. Trainer Harriet Bethell runs at 20% strike rate from 279 runners, one of the better yards represented here. The GoingFit:- is a genuine concern on today's Good surface, but the market appears to be overriding that worry, and at 5/1 there is clear value given the SR lead and course specialisation over a field where no rival cracks 72. Each-way alternative: Meet Me In Meraki. Main danger: Lord Mayor — Lord Mayor (SR:66, 4/1) holds a GoingFit:+ advantage — the only runner proven on today's Good surface — is trained by Andrew Balding at 18% strike rate, and carries a very lenient 9-0 with a 3-year-old allowance still applicable, making the weight profile attractive if the going turns out to be the key variable today.

Case against 4 clamped
  • GoingFit:- on today's Good surface is a concrete unknown — at age 8 with no recorded Good-ground form flag, we cannot confirm Bearwith handles anything other than Fibresand/Tapeta at Southwell.
  • Age 8 with form reading 491257 shows no win in the last six outings; the most recent win in this sequence appears buried, raising questions about current winning form.
  • Meet Me In Meraki (SR:71, 9/4 market leader) is just 1 SR point behind, ridden by Billy Loughnane (18% strike rate, 3038 rides) — a far superior jockey booking versus Tom Kiely-Marshall at 10% on 508…
  • Lord Mayor (4/1, Andrew Balding 18% yard, PJ McDonald 14%) is shorter in the market than Bearwith at 5/1 despite a lower SR — the market structure does not fully endorse Bearwith as the betting elect.
Shortlist Bearwith, Meet Me In Meraki, Lord Mayor, Freddy Robinson
Each-way: Meet Me In Meraki Danger: Lord Mayor

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m3f24y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
8 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade