Southwell (AW) 20:00 24 Sep 2026
Class 5 24 Sep 2026

Today Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap Stakes

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap Stakes · 1m3f24y

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  • 14 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Midnight Media Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 8 hours, 37 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Lady Ridgewood silks
Lady Ridgewood
Age 4 · 10-2
1-6947
75
44
82
4
10-2
40/1 28/1 35/1
Landed a win in her last five starts and has run over today's trip, with our rating of 82 suggesting she holds strong claims at her official mark; the chief concern is a 76-day absence leaving fitness on trust.
AI verdict

SR 44 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

2
Rose Cotton silks
Rose Cotton
Age 4 · 10-1
122736
74
67
82
4
10-1
10/1 8/1 9/1
Rose Cotton shaped well for a podium finish two starts back and her experience over today's trip and going stands her in good stead, with our rating of 82 marking her out as a strong danger; the risk is that she has looked inconsistent in recent starts, and the 141 lb burden is significant.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Pomme Pomme silks
Pomme Pomme
Age 4 · 9-13
-95370
72
53
79
4
9-13
22/1 FCST 16/1
Winless in her last five starts, Pomme Pomme at least has experience of today's trip and conditions in her favour, and 21 days between runs suggests she returns fresh; however, a recent unplaced effort and 139 lb to carry from stall 14 make it hard to see her breaking through here.
AI verdict

SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

4
Aunt Roberta silks
Aunt Roberta
Age 3 · 9-10
643
75
71
79
3
9-10
10/3 6/1 10/3
Winless in her last three starts, Aunt Roberta nonetheless brings a run over today's trip and was third last time out, though the weight burden of 136 lb from stall 12 may test her resolve here.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Hamdania silks
Hamdania
Age 3 · 9-9
1-2
74
73
73
3
9-9
9/1 4/1 17/2
Hamdania arrives on the back of a win two starts back and a runner-up finish last time out, so she brings solid recent form, though our rating of 72 suggests she may find one or two rivals a cut above from stall 11 carrying 135 lb.
AI verdict

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Melody de Vega silks
Melody de Vega
Age 3 · 9-8
358216
73
69
82
3
9-8
10/1 11/1 8/1
Melody de Vega was a winner two starts back and a runner-up three starts back, giving her a lively recent profile, and she has experience of today's trip and going; the chief concern is that six weeks off the track could see her need this run.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Affection silks
Affection
Age 3 · 9-8
113466
73
52
87
3
9-8
33/1 22/1 33/1
Affection arrives on the back of two consecutive sixth-place finishes, but her rating of 87 makes her the one to beat in a field of 14, and she has experience of today's distance and going; a winner five starts back, and again six starts back, she has the class to bounce back from stall 10 off 134 lb.
AI verdict

SR 52 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Emma's Letter silks
Emma's Letter
Age 3 · 9-7
-39131
72
75
75
3
9-7
7/1 11/2 13/2
A winner last time out and a third two starts back, Emma's Letter brings solid recent form and distance-and-going experience to the plate; however, a 34-day absence and a trainer striking at just 4% in the last fortnight are real negatives to weigh against her.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Lucy The Wire silks
Lucy The Wire
Age 4 · 9-7
245
66
56
68
4
9-7
20/1 17/2 20/1
Winless in her last three starts, with a fifth last time out and a second three starts back, Lucy The Wire faces a stiff ask ranked 11 of 14 on our figures, though she has experience over today's trip and going and is at least fresh enough after 21 days off.
AI verdict

SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

10
Guesstimate silks
Guesstimate
Age 3 · 9-7
335127
72
74
77
3
9-7
17/2 6/1 15/2
Guesstimate won three starts back and was second two starts back, showing genuine ability, but a seventh last time out clouds her chance here; she has run over today's trip and going, and 133 lb from stall four is the challenge to overcome.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Floating Market silks
Floating Market
Age 3 · 9-5
551
70
65
60
3
9-5
8/1 6/1 13/2
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Floating Market faces a stiff task off 131 lb, and back-to-back fifth-place finishes two and three starts back do little to inspire confidence, though she does arrive on the back of a win last time out with distance and going experience in her favour.
AI verdict

SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Kino Plasmat silks
Kino Plasmat
Age 3 · 9-2
4465
67
49
65
3
9-2
25/1 18/1 22/1
Winless in her last four starts and ranked near the foot of our figures, Kino Plasmat faces a stiff ask here, though 27 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh and stall one hands her a neutral positional reference.
AI verdict

SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

13
Midnight Media silks
Midnight Media
Age 3 · 8-13
212122
64
81
72
3
8-13
7/2 4/1 10/3
Consistent performer with two wins in her last six starts, including a winner three starts back and runners-up finishes last time out and two starts back; she has run over today's distance and going before, but her rating of 72 leaves her facing stiffer opposition from stall five off 125 lb.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

14
Khepri silks
Khepri
Age 3 · 8-10
44488
61
48
66
3
8-10
25/1 18/1 22/1
Winless in her last five starts, with a pair of eighth-place finishes in her most recent outings, Khepri is hard to fancy ranked twelfth of fourteen on our figures, though she has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a reasonable 23-day break carrying 122 lb from stall two.
AI verdict

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Lady Ridgewood 40/1 open 29.00 35/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 Bet365
2 Rose Cotton 10/1 open 10.00 10/1 open 9.00 11/1 open 9.50 11/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 9.50 11/1 Coral
3 Pomme Pomme 22/1 open 19.00 18/1 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 19.00 16/1 22/1 Bet365
4 Aunt Roberta 10/3 open 12.00 4/1 open 9.00 4/1 open 10.00 4/1 open 10.00 4/1 open 10.00 7/2 open 7.00 4/1 Paddy Power
5 Hamdania 9/1 open 6.00 17/2 open 5.00 9/1 open 5.50 9/1 open 5.50 17/2 open 5.50 10/1 open 5.00 10/1 Betfred
6 Melody de Vega 10/1 open 15.00 17/2 open 12.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 17.00 9/1 open 13.00 8/1 open 15.00 10/1 Bet365
7 Affection 33/1 open 23.00 33/1 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 33/1 Bet365
8 Emma's Letter 7/1 open 6.50 13/2 open 8.00 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 9.00 7/1 Bet365
9 Lucy The Wire 20/1 open 9.50 20/1 open 11.00 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 10.00 20/1 open 13.00 20/1 Bet365
10 Guesstimate 17/2 open 8.00 15/2 open 7.00 17/2 open 7.50 17/2 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.00 17/2 Bet365
11 Floating Market 8/1 open 7.00 13/2 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 Bet365
12 Kino Plasmat 25/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 Bet365
13 Midnight Media 7/2 open 6.00 10/3 open 5.50 7/2 open 5.50 7/2 open 5.50 10/3 open 5.50 10/3 open 5.00 7/2 Bet365
14 Khepri 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 25/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 25/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Emma's Letter

Speculative

Emma's Letter owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (68). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/1 Ed Dunlop Billy Loughnane
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Midnight Media

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/2 · William Muir & Chris Grassick
✓ Value Signal

Kino Plasmat

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Ed Walker
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Live signal
68 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +14.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.9 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 8. Emma's Letter
51.1 7/1
2 13. Midnight Media
50.6 7/2
3 4. Aunt Roberta
48.8 10/3
4 5. Hamdania
48.3 9/1
5 6. Melody de Vega
47.5 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Midnight Media
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 3 · 9-10
10/3
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Age 3 · 8-13
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 3 · 9-7
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 3 · 9-5
8/1
★★★☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 3 · 9-7
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-9
9/1
★★★☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 10-1
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-8
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 4 · 9-7
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 56 🐾

SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Midnight Media
Confidence: Speculative

Midnight Media (SR:81, 9/2) is the highest-rated runner in the field by a clear margin and carries a featherweight 8-13, giving her a 10lb+ advantage over Rose Cotton (SR:67) and a 6lb pull on Emma's Letter (SR:75) — weight is firmly in her favour despite the class rise (↑1). The form string 212122 is relentlessly consistent, showing she fires every time, and GoingFit:+ confirms she handles today's conditions. The market has ticked in 6% since opening, indicating quiet confidence from connections, and trainer Muir & Grassick are a capable yard at 11% strike rate. The class step up is the one caveat, but the SR gap and weight concession received from rivals more than compensate. Each-way alternative: Emma's Letter. Main danger: Aunt Roberta — Aunt Roberta (SR:71, 13/2) has steamed in 18% in the market — the strongest move in the field — drops three class tiers, and carries only 9-10, suggesting connections expect a sharp performance even if her distance and going fitness remain unproven.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Class rise (↑1) is the acknowledged caveat, and with SR:81 she may be meeting a stiffer ceiling — Guesstimate (SR:74, Haggas/23% yard) and Hamdania (SR:73) are closely rated and trained by yards with…
  • Jockey Lewis Edmunds has a modest 12% overall strike rate, and in a 14-runner AW handicap where pace and positioning matter, he is notably less experienced than rivals' riders (Loughnane 18%, Mitchel…
  • Mark movement of only +4 despite being the top-rated horse suggests the market is not fully convinced by the class rise; Aunt Roberta has moved in 18% and represents a more aggressive betting confide…
  • Form string 212122 contains no wins in her last four starts — she is consistently placed but has not converted, raising a question of whether she finds a way to lose at the critical moment under a cl…
Shortlist Midnight Media, Emma's Letter, Guesstimate, Aunt Roberta
Each-way: Emma's Letter Danger: Aunt Roberta

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m3f24y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
14 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade