Third on three occasions in recent starts, L'Eagle Aid arrives here 26 days fresh, has run over today's trip and going, and a rating of 80 makes him narrowly the pick on these figures; winless in his last six, he must convert that consistency into something more.
Form last 6635336
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR80RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fresh from a win three starts back and back in good time on going she has encountered before, Mother Dear arrives here with her rating of 77 suggesting she is ahead of her official mark — the question is whether she can recapture that form after back-to-back below-par efforts.
Form last 68156
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR77RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Consistent placer who finished second and third in his last four starts, Al Fujairah has experience of today's going and returns fit on a quick turnaround, though his trainer's recent 3% strike rate is a concern for a gelding yet to score.
Form last 64325
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR71RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ran well to finish third last time out, though her recent form also includes a pair of mid-pack efforts, and carrying 134 lb will test her resolve; she has run over today's trip and going before, and a win in her last five starts shows ability worth respecting.
Form last 6196-73
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR68RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked seventh of eight on our figures, Golden Caviar faces a stiff task here; a struggling trainer at 4% over the last 14 days compounds the concern, though he has run over today's going before and returns fit on 15 days' rest.
Form last 65-536
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
44SR64RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Saratoga Gold shaped with promise when third last time out and has run over today's trip and going, while our rating of 74 puts him notably ahead of his official mark — the main concern is he remains winless in his last five starts.
Form last 6-32663
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR74RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Thunder Goddess won last time out and has run over today's going before, giving her obvious claims, but she carries 132 lb and her speed rating of 59 suggests she may find life competitive against the top-rated runners.
Form last 6645221
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
72SR68RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last three starts, with a seventh last time out and a ninth two starts back, Long Reign arrives 107 days off the track and ranks bottom on our figures, making him very hard to fancy here.
Form last 6097
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
27SR46RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Thunder Goddess owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (40) and market confidence (96). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/11Andrew BaldingCharlie Tucker(7)
72%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
L'Eagle Aid
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/1 · Charlie Johnston✓ Value Signal
Long Reign
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
22/1 · Marcus Tregoning◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Thunder Goddess (SR:72, 1/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a meaningful margin — 3lb clear of Mother Dear and 13lb clear of the SR median — and her form line 645221 shows a progressive sequence culminating in back-to-back wins. She carries a light 9-6 despite the class rise (ClassMv:↑1), which offsets the MarkMv:+2 concern. Crucially, she holds Course:W1P1 at Pontefract, confirming she handles this track, and GoingFit:+ validates she handles good ground. The market has continued to shorten (Mkt:in8%) on what is already a well-backed favourite, and Andrew Balding's 18% strike rate with 3,000 runners is the strongest training operation in this field — his yard sends winners when they're ready.
Each-way alternative: Mother Dear.
Main danger: Mother Dear — Mother Dear (SR:69, 15/2) has steamed in 34% in the market, drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), is proven on good ground (GoingFit:+), and Callum Rodriguez's 19% career strike rate is the strongest jockey stat in the field — the money is arriving for a reason.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Charlie Tucker has a strike rate of just 9% from only 102 rides — a very inexperienced jockey partnering an odds-on favourite under pressure at a tight, turning track like Pontefract.
Only 7 days since her last run — extremely quick turnaround for a 3yo filly who has already been raised 2lb in the weights (MarkMv:+2) following back-to-back wins; fatigue/residual stiffness is a rea…
Class rise (↑1) combined with a MarkMv of +2 means she is racing off a career-high mark in a higher grade simultaneously — both variables stacking against her at once.
Mother Dear (SR:69, 15/2) has shortened dramatically (Mkt:in34%) and Callum Rodriguez (19% strike rate) is a strong booking — a well-supported rival narrowing the SR gap to just 3lb could exploit any…
ShortlistThunder Goddess, Mother Dear, L'Eagle Aid