Southwell (AW) 18:00 24 Sep 2026
Class 5 24 Sep 2026

Today Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div II)

Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div II) · 7f15y

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  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Lieutenant Kije Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 8 hours, 38 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Herculeus silks
Herculeus
Age 4 · 10-0
-95060
70
66
73
4
10-0
15/2 7/1 13/2
Herculeus has run over today's trip and returns on a quick 15-day turnaround, with our rating of 73 marking him as a leading threat in this field; yet to score in recent starts, and that winless run is the obvious concern.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Tasdeed silks
Tasdeed
Age 5 · 9-13
/0-784
69
65
75
5
9-13
5/1 15/2 4/1
Tasdeed is the top-rated runner in the field and was nearest home when fourth last time, has run over today's trip and going, and returns fit on just a 15-day break from stall three carrying 139 lb; the risk is he remains yet to win in his last four starts.
AI verdict

SR 65 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Hectic silks
Hectic
Age 6 · 9-10
075393
66
66
72
6
9-10
10/1 13/2 9/1
Winless in his last six starts, Hectic at least shows a degree of consistency, with a third last time out and a third three starts back softening a patchy record that also includes a ninth two starts back; he has experience of today's trip and going, and our rating edges above his official mark, though 136 lb is no help.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Lieutenant Kije silks
Lieutenant Kije
Age 3 · 9-10
326-53
69
75
72
3
9-10
2/1 9/4 2/1
Yet to win in his last five starts, Lieutenant Kije nonetheless shows consistency with a third last time out and a second four starts back, and he has experience over today's distance and going; 136 lb from stall six is the challenge.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Bold Shout silks
Bold Shout
Age 3 · 9-10
44138
69
74
72
3
9-10
5/1 11/4 4/1
Bold Shout landed a winner three starts back and was third two starts back, giving him recent form to work with; he has run over today's trip and returns fit on 13 days' rest, though his eighth last time out is the obvious concern.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Show Me Gold silks
Show Me Gold
Age 3 · 9-9
241924
68
66
67
3
9-9
17/2 15/2 17/2
Ranked eighth of nine on our figures, Show Me Gold is hard to fancy at these weights, with a ninth three starts back the low point of patchy recent form; a second two starts back offers some encouragement, and she has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Shaw Park silks
Shaw Park
Age 7 · 9-9
830843
65
60
72
7
9-9
12/1 11/1 12/1
Shaw Park was third last time out, and has run over today's trip and going, keeping him well placed on conditions; yet to score in recent starts and a trainer out of form (0/23 in the last 14 days) tempers expectations, but he catches the eye on his overall profile carrying 135 lb from stall four.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Norfolk Blue silks
Norfolk Blue
Age 3 · 9-8
425251
67
65
68
3
9-8
11/1 5/1 11/1
Norfolk Blue won last time out and has experience of both today's trip and going, but his trainer is in a dire 0-from-23 spell over the past fortnight and our figures rank him seventh of nine, making him very difficult to fancy at the weights despite that recent victory.
AI verdict

SR 65 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Bad Habits silks
Bad Habits
Age 4 · 9-0
722913
56
54
58
4
9-0
22/1 9/1 16/1
A lengthy break of 139 days is the primary concern here, and ranked last of nine on our figures, Bad Habits faces a stiff task on ratings; he has run over today's distance and going, and that winning effort two starts back offers some hope, but fitness after such a layoff is a real question.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Herculeus 15/2 open 11.00 13/2 open 9.00 7/1 open 9.50 7/1 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.50 7/1 15/2 Bet365
2 Tasdeed 5/1 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.00 4/1 open 9.00 4/1 open 9.00 11/2 open 9.00 11/2 open 8.50 11/2 William Hill
3 Hectic 10/1 open 7.50 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 8.00 10/1 Bet365
4 Lieutenant Kije 2/1 open 4.50 9/4 open 4.00 9/4 open 4.00 9/4 open 4.00 9/4 open 4.00 9/4 9/4 Paddy Power
5 Bold Shout 5/1 open 5.00 9/2 open 3.75 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 open 4.33 9/2 open 4.33 4/1 open 4.50 5/1 Bet365
6 Show Me Gold 17/2 open 8.50 9/1 open 9.00 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 Paddy Power
7 Shaw Park 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 Bet365
8 Norfolk Blue 11/1 open 6.50 12/1 open 6.00 11/1 open 6.00 11/1 open 6.00 12/1 open 6.00 12/1 open 7.00 12/1 Paddy Power
9 Bad Habits 22/1 open 10.00 25/1 open 17.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 20/1 open 13.00 22/1 open 13.00 25/1 Paddy Power

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Lieutenant Kije

Speculative

Lieutenant Kije owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

2/1 Tom Ward Billy Loughnane
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Tasdeed

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Charlie Pike
✓ Value Signal

Bad Habits

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · Ruth Carr
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
91 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Lieutenant Kije
51.3 2/1
2 2. Tasdeed
49.6 5/1
3 5. Bold Shout
49.1 5/1
4 3. Hectic
47.4 10/1
5 1. Herculeus
46.3 15/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Lieutenant Kije
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 3 · 9-10
2/1
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 5 · 9-13
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-10
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 3 · 9-9
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 6 · 9-10
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 3 · 9-8
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 7 · 9-9
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 60 🐾

SR 60 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Lieutenant Kije
Confidence: Speculative

Lieutenant Kije leads the field on SR (75) and carries only 9-10 — level with Bold Shout but with a meaningful SR edge over the rest. The GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good going, the market has shortened 12% since opening (money arriving with purpose), and Billy Loughnane (18% strike rate, 3,038 career rides) is the standout jockey booking in the field. Recent form 326-53 at the same class shows consistent competitiveness, and a cheekpiece application signals connections are trying to sharpen him. The 5/2 price implies roughly 29% market probability — my 32% estimate reflects a slight edge given the multi-signal alignment. Each-way alternative: Bold Shout. Main danger: Bold Shout — Bold Shout (SR:74, 9/2) is within 1 SR point of Lieutenant Kije, trained by the high-strike Clive Cox (17%), and carries the same weight, with recent form showing a win last time out (form:44138 rightmost = 8th, then 3, then 1) — if the drift from opening is noise rather than a genuine negative signal, he's the most dangerous rival at a workable price.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Course record is W0P1 — one placed run at Southwell AW with no win; the Fibresand/Tapeta surface here has not been conquered despite the GoingFit+ flag.
  • Bold Shout (SR:74, nearly identical) is trained by Clive Cox (17% strike rate vs Tom Ward's 11%) with fresher legs (13 days vs 21) — and the market has drifted Bold Shout out only 14%, suggesting som…
  • Form string 326-53 contains a break (the dash) and the last two runs are a '5' and '3' — finishing fifth most recently is not the form of a horse peaking into this race, even with cheekpieces added.
  • Norfolk Blue drifted 65% in the market (significant layer activity) yet shares the cheekpiece flag (HG:p) and has a win in recent form (425251 ends in '1') — if the market has soured on Norfolk Blue…
Shortlist Lieutenant Kije, Bold Shout, Herculeus
Each-way: Bold Shout Danger: Bold Shout

🗺 The Course Class 5

7f15y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade