Mags Nelson returns from a 360-day absence, which is the dominant concern, and our figures rank him at the foot of the field; he does have winning form in his last five starts and has run over today's trip, but it is very hard to fancy on reappearance.
Form last 613183-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR106RPR106OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ripsnorter won last time out but that single success in his last five starts is hard to build on against this grade, and a rating of 105 ranks him at the foot of the field — 153 lb adds to the concern, though 24 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh.
Form last 60-7681
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
98SR105RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Pulled up last time out and absent for 148 days, Aurea Fortuna is hard to fancy on recent form, and his rating of 109 ranks him fifteenth of eighteen here; a win five starts back is the lone bright spot, and he does at least bring distance and going experience to the table.
Form last 61059P-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR109RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Carrigg Island shaped with promise when third last time out and his experience over today's trip and going is a clear asset, with our rating of 123 marking him as a genuine player in a field of 18; the concern is a 341-day absence carrying 168 lb while yet to win in recent starts.
Form last 652553-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
114SR123RPR122OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 114 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Slurricane arrives on going he has encountered before and, with our rating of 121 putting him right in contention among 18 rivals, he shapes as a genuine danger despite being winless in his last five starts; the concern is a seventh last time out and a third five starts back that bookends a patchy recent sequence.
Form last 6309-07
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
81SR121RPR120OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Third three starts back, No Looking Back returns after 54 days carrying 165 lb, and his experience over today's trip and going is a key asset; winless in his last five, his rating of 128 marks him as the one to beat in this field of 18.
Form last 60430-7
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR128RPR119OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ehteyat arrives quickly enough after his run 13 days ago and has going experience to call on, yet he is winless in his last five starts and his two most recent outings — a pull-up and an unplaced effort — give little encouragement, making the 164 lb burden an additional concern for a gelding ranked fifth of 18.
Form last 6230-P0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR121RPR118OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Rated 125 and ranked second of 18 runners, Lisnagar Fortune brings distance and going experience into this, and 82 days between runs can sharpen a gelding fresh to the task — the risk is that his recent string of poor efforts, including a pull-up last time, makes a turnaround hard to trust.
Form last 6/87-8P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
88SR125RPR116OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
First Ascent arrives on the back of a win last time out, and his form figures show consistency without dominance — a second and third also featuring in his last five starts, though a fourth and fifth temper enthusiasm; 21 days since that victory keeps him fresh, though 160 lb is a stiff burden to overcome.
Form last 6-54231
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
113SR114RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Returned a winner last time out, but has struggled in his last five starts beyond that sole success, and a 62-day absence plus a hefty 160 lb burden give cause for pause despite experience over today's trip and going.
Form last 6008-71
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
103SR112RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Kevin's Pride showed winning form five starts back and has experience over today's trip and going, but his last three runs have all been in the mid-pack, and carrying 160 lb is a stiff ask as he bids to rediscover that better form.
Form last 614-546
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
85SR118RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and yet to score in recent form, Reiki Revolution carries a hefty 160 lb, faces a trainer in a barren spell of 0 from 34, and ranks eleventh of eighteen — though he has experience over today's trip and going, and the 53-day break could mean freshness.
Form last 64-UU49
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR114RPR114OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 16 of 18 on our figures, Killowen House faces a stiff ask here carrying 159 lb, though he has shown consistent placing ability in recent starts and has run over today's trip before.
Form last 6-37342
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
108SR109RPR113OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked 17 of 18 on our figures, Chutzpal is hard to fancy despite a run over today's going and a return to form that saw him win back-to-back three and four starts back; he was unplaced last time and a third two starts back suggests that momentum has stalled.
Form last 681130/
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
97SR109RPR111OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Yet to score in his last five starts and returning after 116 days off, Boston Rajj faces a stiff task at 156 lb, though he has run over today's trip and going before and a rating of 117 suggests he retains ability ahead of the handicapper's assessment.
Form last 65345-7
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR117RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts but consistently placed of late — third two starts back and runner-up last time out — Moylussa has experience of today's trip and conditions, though 156 lb poses a stiff test for a horse ranked mid-field at best.
Form last 647-332
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
104SR114RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Ranked well below the rest of the field on our figures, Cozone is hard to fancy despite a win two starts back and reasonable fitness at 20 days since last seen; he has run over today's trip and going, but a fifth last time out offers little encouragement.
Form last 616-315
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR107RPR109OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts but placed two starts back and last time out, Mart Lane has experience of today's going and returns after just 17 days; the 154 lb burden is a tough ask for a gelding yet to find the winner's enclosure.
Form last 6524-82
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
108SR110RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and ranked bottom of this field on our figures, Tiger Twins also fell last time out and returns just one day later, making him extremely hard to fancy; he has run over today's trip and going before, and the weight of 154 lb offers no obvious relief.
Form last 6540-5F
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR107RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Hello Jack showed a flash of encouragement with a third three starts back, but has since regressed to a sixth and eighth in his last two outings, and 165 days off the track adds a fitness query; yet to win in recent starts, the welterweight burden of 153 lb makes a bold showing harder to see.
Form last 6P6386-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
97SR114RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 97 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Carrigg Island owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (63) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/2Eoin Christopher McCarthyThomas O'Connor(7)
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
First Ascent
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/1 · Gordon Elliott✓ Value Signal
Pakens Rock
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Donncha Duggan◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
First Ascent (SR:113, 6/1, 11-6) posts the second-highest SR in the field and is the leanest weight carrier among the top-rated horses, giving him a clear pounds advantage over Carrigg Island (SR:114, 12-0) whose top weight is a real burden in a 21-runner handicap hurdle. Gordon Elliott's 18% strike rate is comfortably the strongest training operation in the field, and James Smith's 9% career figure is solid for a claim. Crucially, GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good ground well, and the recent form line -54231 shows a last-time-out win that demonstrates peak fitness, with only 21 days since that run — fresh enough but not stale. The 12% drift is a mild concern but Elliott regularly places horses in provincial handicaps without strong market moves, and the trainer signal here overrides a moderate drift.
Each-way alternative: Killowen House.
Main danger: Carrigg Island — Carrigg Island (SR:114, highest in the field) has steamed in 51% in the market — by far the sharpest move of any runner — and connections have clearly targeted this race after 341 days off, though top weight of 12-0 on good ground over 2m4f remains a significant ask.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
First Ascent has drifted 12% in the market (MarkMv:+10) despite Elliott's yard strength — money has actively moved away from him in a competitive 21-runner handicap where market intelligence matters.
Form line -54231 shows the LTO win but the four runs prior were a 5, 4, 2, 3 — inconsistent, and at age 5 in only his second season, the handicapper may have caught up quickly after that last win.
Killowen House (SR:108, same weight 11-5, 6/1 co-favourite) and Mart Lane (SR:108, 9/2 market leader, 11-0) both carry lighter weights and Mart Lane in particular is shorter in the market — punters a…
James Smith's 9% claim strike rate is modest, and in a chaotic 21-runner Listowel hurdle, rider inexperience in large-field provincial scrums could prove costly for a 5yo still learning his trade.
ShortlistFirst Ascent, Carrigg Island, Killowen House, In For The Night