Listowel 16:17 24 Sep 2026
24 Sep 2026

Today Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle

Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m4f0y

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AI rates First Ascent Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 8 hours, 37 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Mags Nelson silks
Mags Nelson
Age 7 · 10-12
13183-
TBA
106
93
106
7
10-12
SP 16/1 18/1
Mags Nelson returns from a 360-day absence, which is the dominant concern, and our figures rank him at the foot of the field; he does have winning form in his last five starts and has run over today's trip, but it is very hard to fancy on reappearance.
AI verdict

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

?
Aurea Fortuna silks
Aurea Fortuna
Age 7 · 10-13
1059P-
TBA
107
79
109
7
10-13
SP 18/1 20/1
Pulled up last time out and absent for 148 days, Aurea Fortuna is hard to fancy on recent form, and his rating of 109 ranks him fifteenth of eighteen here; a win five starts back is the lone bright spot, and he does at least bring distance and going experience to the table.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

?
Ripsnorter silks
Ripsnorter
Age 5 · 10-13
0-7681
TBA
107
98
105
5
10-13
SP 11/1 12/1
Ripsnorter won last time out but that single success in his last five starts is hard to build on against this grade, and a rating of 105 ranks him at the foot of the field — 153 lb adds to the concern, though 24 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh.
AI verdict

SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Carrigg Island silks
Carrigg Island
Age 6 · 12-0
52553-
122
114
123
6
12-0
11/2 17/2 11/2
Carrigg Island shaped with promise when third last time out and his experience over today's trip and going is a clear asset, with our rating of 123 marking him as a genuine player in a field of 18; the concern is a 341-day absence carrying 168 lb while yet to win in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 114 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Slurricane silks
Slurricane
Age 5 · 11-12
309-07
120
81
121
5
11-12
40/1 18/1 40/1
Slurricane arrives on going he has encountered before and, with our rating of 121 putting him right in contention among 18 rivals, he shapes as a genuine danger despite being winless in his last five starts; the concern is a seventh last time out and a third five starts back that bookends a patchy recent sequence.
AI verdict

SR 81 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

3
No Looking Back silks
No Looking Back
Age 8 · 11-11
0430-7
119
88
128
8
11-11
22/1 20/1 18/1
Third three starts back, No Looking Back returns after 54 days carrying 165 lb, and his experience over today's trip and going is a key asset; winless in his last five, his rating of 128 marks him as the one to beat in this field of 18.
AI verdict

SR 88 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Ehteyat silks
Ehteyat
Age 7 · 11-10
230-P0
118
82
121
7
11-10
33/1
Ehteyat arrives quickly enough after his run 13 days ago and has going experience to call on, yet he is winless in his last five starts and his two most recent outings — a pull-up and an unplaced effort — give little encouragement, making the 164 lb burden an additional concern for a gelding ranked fifth of 18.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Lisnagar Fortune silks
Lisnagar Fortune
Age 8 · 11-8
/87-8P
116
88
125
8
11-8
40/1 16/1 33/1
Rated 125 and ranked second of 18 runners, Lisnagar Fortune brings distance and going experience into this, and 82 days between runs can sharpen a gelding fresh to the task — the risk is that his recent string of poor efforts, including a pull-up last time, makes a turnaround hard to trust.
AI verdict

SR 88 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

6
First Ascent silks
First Ascent
Age 5 · 11-6
-54231
114
113
114
5
11-6
7/1 5/1 13/2
First Ascent arrives on the back of a win last time out, and his form figures show consistency without dominance — a second and third also featuring in his last five starts, though a fourth and fifth temper enthusiasm; 21 days since that victory keeps him fresh, though 160 lb is a stiff burden to overcome.
AI verdict

SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
In For The Night silks
In For The Night
Age 8 · 11-6
008-71
114
103
112
8
11-6
10/1 8/1 10/1
Returned a winner last time out, but has struggled in his last five starts beyond that sole success, and a 62-day absence plus a hefty 160 lb burden give cause for pause despite experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Kevin's Pride silks
Kevin's Pride
Age 7 · 11-6
14-546
114
85
118
7
11-6
25/1 16/1 22/1
Kevin's Pride showed winning form five starts back and has experience over today's trip and going, but his last three runs have all been in the mid-pack, and carrying 160 lb is a stiff ask as he bids to rediscover that better form.
AI verdict

SR 85 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Reiki Revolution silks
Reiki Revolution
Age 6 · 11-6
4-UU49
114
89
114
6
11-6
8/1 11/1 7/1
Winless in his last five starts and yet to score in recent form, Reiki Revolution carries a hefty 160 lb, faces a trainer in a barren spell of 0 from 34, and ranks eleventh of eighteen — though he has experience over today's trip and going, and the 53-day break could mean freshness.
AI verdict

SR 89 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Killowen House silks
Killowen House
Age 6 · 11-5
-37342
113
108
109
6
11-5
9/2 9/2 7/2
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 16 of 18 on our figures, Killowen House faces a stiff ask here carrying 159 lb, though he has shown consistent placing ability in recent starts and has run over today's trip before.
AI verdict

SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Chutzpal silks
Chutzpal
Age 7 · 11-3
81130/
111
97
109
7
11-3
10/1 12/1 17/2
Ranked 17 of 18 on our figures, Chutzpal is hard to fancy despite a run over today's going and a return to form that saw him win back-to-back three and four starts back; he was unplaced last time and a third two starts back suggests that momentum has stalled.
AI verdict

SR 97 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Boston Rajj silks
Boston Rajj
Age 8 · 11-2
5345-7
110
83
117
8
11-2
25/1 18/1 22/1
Yet to score in his last five starts and returning after 116 days off, Boston Rajj faces a stiff task at 156 lb, though he has run over today's trip and going before and a rating of 117 suggests he retains ability ahead of the handicapper's assessment.
AI verdict

SR 83 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Moylussa silks
Moylussa
Age 7 · 11-2
47-332
110
104
114
7
11-2
13/2 9/1 5/1
Winless in his last five starts but consistently placed of late — third two starts back and runner-up last time out — Moylussa has experience of today's trip and conditions, though 156 lb poses a stiff test for a horse ranked mid-field at best.
AI verdict

SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

14
Cozone silks
Cozone
Age 9 · 11-1
16-315
109
100
107
9
11-1
16/1 10/1 14/1
Ranked well below the rest of the field on our figures, Cozone is hard to fancy despite a win two starts back and reasonable fitness at 20 days since last seen; he has run over today's trip and going, but a fifth last time out offers little encouragement.
AI verdict

SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

15
Mart Lane silks
Mart Lane
Age 5 · 11-0
524-82
108
108
110
5
11-0
9/2 10/3 4/1
Winless in his last five starts but placed two starts back and last time out, Mart Lane has experience of today's going and returns after just 17 days; the 154 lb burden is a tough ask for a gelding yet to find the winner's enclosure.
AI verdict

SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

16
Pakens Rock silks
Pakens Rock
Age 13 · 11-0
/3774-
108
84
118
13
11-0
33/1 20/1 28/1
SR 84 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 84 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

17
Tiger Twins silks
Tiger Twins
Age 5 · 11-0
540-5F
108
88
107
5
11-0
16/1 16/1 14/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked bottom of this field on our figures, Tiger Twins also fell last time out and returns just one day later, making him extremely hard to fancy; he has run over today's trip and going before, and the weight of 154 lb offers no obvious relief.
AI verdict

SR 88 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

18
Hello Jack silks
Hello Jack
Age 6 · 10-13
P6386-
107
97
114
6
10-13
11/1 FCST 10/1
Hello Jack showed a flash of encouragement with a third three starts back, but has since regressed to a sixth and eighth in his last two outings, and 165 days off the track adds a fitness query; yet to win in recent starts, the welterweight burden of 153 lb makes a bold showing harder to see.
AI verdict

SR 97 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Mags Nelson 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 Coral
0 Aurea Fortuna 22/1 open 21.00 20/1 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 Bet365
0 Ripsnorter 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 open 12.00 12/1 Bet365
1 Carrigg Island 11/2 open 19.00 13/2 open 19.00 11/2 open 17.00 11/2 open 17.00 6/1 open 15.00 11/2 open 9.50 13/2 Paddy Power
2 Slurricane 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 19.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 Bet365
3 No Looking Back 22/1 25/1 open 21.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 26.00 25/1 Paddy Power
4 Ehteyat 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 Bet365
5 Lisnagar Fortune 40/1 open 19.00 40/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 17.00 40/1 Bet365
6 First Ascent 7/1 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.00 7/1 Bet365
7 In For The Night 10/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 10.00 11/1 open 9.50 11/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 9.50 11/1 Coral
8 Kevin's Pride 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 17.00 25/1 Bet365
9 Reiki Revolution 8/1 open 13.00 15/2 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 13.00 7/1 open 12.00 8/1 Bet365
10 Killowen House 9/2 open 7.00 4/1 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 7/2 open 6.50 4/1 open 5.50 9/2 Bet365
11 Chutzpal 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 Bet365
12 Boston Rajj 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 25/1 Bet365
13 Moylussa 13/2 open 10.00 7/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 10.00 5/1 open 12.00 7/1 Paddy Power
14 Cozone 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 11.00 16/1 Bet365
15 Mart Lane 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.33 9/2 Bet365
16 Pakens Rock 33/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 21.00 33/1 Bet365
17 Tiger Twins 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 14/1 open 17.00 16/1 16/1 Bet365
18 Hello Jack 11/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 11.00 10/1 10/1 10/1 10/1 11/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Mart Lane

Live signal

Mart Lane owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (60) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 Barry Connell Mr Finian Maguire
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Carrigg Island

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/2 · Eoin Christopher McCarthy
✓ Value Signal

Lisnagar Fortune

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · John McConnell
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +22.8 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 15. Mart Lane
60.1 9/2
2 1. Carrigg Island
59.5 11/2
3 6. First Ascent
59.5 7/1
4 13. Moylussa
59.2 13/2
5 10. Killowen House
58.5 9/2
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
First Ascent
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

10
Age 6 · 11-5
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 108 🐾

SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

15
Age 5 · 11-0
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 108 🐾

SR 108 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 6 · 12-0
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 114 🐾

SR 114 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 7 · 11-2
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 104 🐾

SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 5 · 11-6
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 113 🐾

SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 6 · 11-6
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 89 🐾

SR 89 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 8 · 11-6
10/1
★★★☆☆ SR 103 🐾

SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 7 · 11-3
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 97 🐾

SR 97 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

18
Age 6 · 10-13
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 97 🐾

SR 97 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
Age 9 · 11-1
16/1
★★★☆☆ SR 100 🐾

SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

17
Age 5 · 11-0
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾

SR 88 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
First Ascent
Confidence: Speculative

First Ascent (SR:113, 6/1, 11-6) posts the second-highest SR in the field and is the leanest weight carrier among the top-rated horses, giving him a clear pounds advantage over Carrigg Island (SR:114, 12-0) whose top weight is a real burden in a 21-runner handicap hurdle. Gordon Elliott's 18% strike rate is comfortably the strongest training operation in the field, and James Smith's 9% career figure is solid for a claim. Crucially, GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good ground well, and the recent form line -54231 shows a last-time-out win that demonstrates peak fitness, with only 21 days since that run — fresh enough but not stale. The 12% drift is a mild concern but Elliott regularly places horses in provincial handicaps without strong market moves, and the trainer signal here overrides a moderate drift. Each-way alternative: Killowen House. Main danger: Carrigg Island — Carrigg Island (SR:114, highest in the field) has steamed in 51% in the market — by far the sharpest move of any runner — and connections have clearly targeted this race after 341 days off, though top weight of 12-0 on good ground over 2m4f remains a significant ask.

Case against 4 clamped
  • First Ascent has drifted 12% in the market (MarkMv:+10) despite Elliott's yard strength — money has actively moved away from him in a competitive 21-runner handicap where market intelligence matters.
  • Form line -54231 shows the LTO win but the four runs prior were a 5, 4, 2, 3 — inconsistent, and at age 5 in only his second season, the handicapper may have caught up quickly after that last win.
  • Killowen House (SR:108, same weight 11-5, 6/1 co-favourite) and Mart Lane (SR:108, 9/2 market leader, 11-0) both carry lighter weights and Mart Lane in particular is shorter in the market — punters a…
  • James Smith's 9% claim strike rate is modest, and in a chaotic 21-runner Listowel hurdle, rider inexperience in large-field provincial scrums could prove costly for a 5yo still learning his trade.
Shortlist First Ascent, Carrigg Island, Killowen House, In For The Night
Each-way: Killowen House Danger: Carrigg Island

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m4f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
21 Confirmed runners
Listowel Track and setting