Jw4x4 Northallerton Nursery Handicap Stakes · 5f
SR 83 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 82 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Princesse d'Orange | 4/1 open 9.00 | 7/2 open 7.50 | 7/2 open 7.50 | 7/2 open 7.50 | 3/1 open 7.50 | 7/2 open 7.50 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Savage Mariner | 22/1 open 13.00 | 20/1 open 12.00 | 22/1 open 12.00 | 22/1 open 12.00 | 20/1 open 12.00 | 20/1 open 12.00 | 22/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Anchiano | 6/1 open 4.50 | 6/1 open 4.50 | 6/1 open 4.50 | 6/1 open 4.50 | 6/1 open 4.50 | 6/1 open 4.50 | 6/1 Bet365 |
| 4 This Moment | 15/2 open 5.50 | 15/2 open 5.50 | 7/1 open 5.50 | 7/1 open 5.50 | 15/2 open 5.50 | 15/2 open 5.50 | 15/2 Bet365 |
| 5 Black Velvet Boy | 8/1 open 5.50 | 8/1 open 6.50 | 8/1 open 6.00 | 8/1 open 6.00 | 8/1 open 6.00 | 15/2 open 6.00 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Furturra | 6/1 open 13.00 | 11/2 open 10.00 | 6/1 open 9.50 | 6/1 open 9.50 | 6/1 open 9.00 | 11/2 open 10.00 | 6/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Roots In Touche | 11/1 open 9.50 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 10/1 | 10/1 | 11/1 open 11.00 | 11/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 Paddy Power |
| 8 Casino Star | 11/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 7.50 | 8/1 open 7.50 | 8/1 open 7.50 | 10/1 open 7.50 | 10/1 open 7.50 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Concert Pitch | 7/2 open 6.50 | 7/2 open 6.00 | 7/2 open 5.50 | 7/2 open 5.50 | 7/2 open 6.00 | 10/3 open 6.00 | 7/2 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Concert Pitch owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (50) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 83 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 82 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Concert Pitch (SR:90, 5/1, Wgt:8-12) carries the lightest weight in the field and has the highest SR by a clear margin — that 5-7lb weight advantage over rivals like This Moment and Black Velvet Boy (both 9-6/9-9) is significant on good to soft ground over 5f. The form string 662221 shows a horse that has been finding its feet and hit peak form, winning last time out. Connor Beasley is a strong booking (15% strike rate, 432 career runs) and this is a horse stepping up in class (↑2) but doing so off the lightest weight in the race — the handicapper's concession to its mark rise of +7 is partially offset by that weight advantage. The danger from the market drift is real, but Beasley's confidence via the market (no drift flagged, unlike the drifters around it) and the trajectory of form make Concert Pitch the most compelling case. Each-way alternative: Princesse d'Orange. Main danger: Black Velvet Boy — Black Velvet Boy (SR:85, 13/2, Wgt:9-6) has won two consecutive races (Form:7311) and carries proven distance form (DistFit:+), with Jason Hart (14% strike rate) aboard — a horse in excellent recent nick that could make Concert Pitch work hard to confirm superiority off the weights.