Kempton (AW) 15:20 RESULTED
Class 1 5 Sep 2026

Saturday 5 September William Hill Sirenia Stakes (Group 3)

William Hill Sirenia Stakes (Group 3) · 6f

Official Result

William Hill Sirenia Stakes (Group 3)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Moonrise (IRE) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding
    11/4
  2. 16/1
  3. 10/1
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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 2 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Evenfall silks
Evenfall Non-Runner
Age 2 · 9-0
11
92
92OR
2
9-0
SP
1
Adaay of Scarlett silks
Adaay of Scarlett
Age 2 · 9-3
122225
106
113
104
2
9-3
4/1 7/2 4/1
Consistent and classy, Adaay of Scarlett has finished second on four occasions in recent starts and a winner six starts back, returning here fit on a 15-day turnaround having run over today's trip; the main risk is that fifth last time out suggests he may just find one too good again.
AI verdict

SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Agamemnon silks
Agamemnon
Age 2 · 9-3
618324
104
96
102
2
9-3
15/2 11/2 15/2
Placed second two starts back and third three starts back, Agamemnon arrives on a sharp 15-day turnaround in solid recent trim, and has run over today's trip before; the fourth last time out is the one form line that gives slight pause.
AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Moonrise silks
Moonrise
Age 2 · 9-3
121
100
111
103
2
9-3
3/1 9/4 3/1
Moonrise arrives on the back of a win last time out, with another victory three starts back and experience over today's trip and going — a compelling profile. The main risk is the 42-day absence at 129 lb from stall nine.
AI verdict

SR 111 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Social Symbol silks
Social Symbol
Age 2 · 9-3
1443
96
89
102
2
9-3
14/1 17/2 14/1
Third last time out and a winner four starts back, Social Symbol arrives here in good heart after 28 days off, has run over today's trip, and his 102 rating makes him an appealing pick to go one better from stall 7 carrying 129 lb.
AI verdict

SR 89 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Tawakal silks
Tawakal
Age 2 · 9-3
12
93
96
71
2
9-3
11/8 5/2 18/13
Ranked bottom of nine on our figures, Tawakal faces a stiff ask under 129 lb from stall 1, though he has run over today's trip and arrives on the back of a win and a runner-up finish in his last two starts.
AI verdict

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Bated Benevolence silks
Bated Benevolence
Age 2 · 9-0
1012
86
75
89
2
9-0
33/1
Ranked eighth of nine on our figures, Bated Benevolence faces a stiff ask, though she arrives on a sound note — a runner-up last time out and a winner two starts back — and has run over today's trip before.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Efsixteen silks
Efsixteen
Age 2 · 9-0
14
88
89
95
2
9-0
11/1 10/1 11/1
Winner two starts back but only fourth on her most recent outing, Efsixteen returns after 22 days and has run over today's trip before; the 126 lb burden and a ranking of sixth of nine in our ratings are the checks on her claims.
AI verdict

SR 89 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Nicely silks
Nicely
Age 2 · 9-0
2161
89
77
94
2
9-0
22/1 25/1 20/1
Ranked well down the field on our figures despite an official mark of 89, Nicely has won twice in her last four starts and returns on a quick turnaround from stall two, with experience over today's trip adding mild encouragement, but the speed rating of 79 leaves her hard to fancy at this level.
AI verdict

SR 77 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Shimmering Sun silks
Shimmering Sun
Age 2 · 9-0
1720
94
80
96
2
9-0
20/1 14/1 18/1
Shimmering Sun returns after 16 days carrying 126 lb from stall 6, and has run over today's trip before. A winner four starts back, she was second two starts back, but has disappointed on her most recent outing, leaving her profile a touch mixed.
AI verdict

SR 80 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Evenfall
1 Adaay of Scarlett 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 Betfred
2 Agamemnon 15/2 open 6.50 8/1 open 8.00 8/1 open 7.00 8/1 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 8/1 Paddy Power
3 Moonrise 3/1 open 3.50 3/1 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 Bet365
4 Social Symbol 14/1 open 9.50 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 Paddy Power
5 Tawakal 11/8 open 4.33 11/8 open 3.50 6/4 open 4.00 6/4 open 4.00 11/8 open 4.33 6/4 open 3.75 6/4 Coral
6 Bated Benevolence 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 33/1 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 open 41.00 33/1 Bet365
7 Efsixteen 11/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 11/1 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 11/1 Bet365
9 Nicely 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 29.00 20/1 open 26.00 22/1 Bet365
10 Shimmering Sun 20/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 21.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 15.00 20/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Adaay of Scarlett

Live signal

Adaay of Scarlett owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (63) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 Hugo Palmer Rossa Ryan
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Moonrise

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

3/1 · Andrew Balding
✓ Value Signal

Nicely

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · Kevin Philippart De Foy
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Live signal
63 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +23.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.2 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Adaay of Scarlett
60.6 4/1
2 3. Moonrise
60.5 3/1
3 5. Tawakal
57.1 11/8
4 2. Agamemnon
54.1 15/2
5 7. Efsixteen
53.0 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Tawakal
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 2 · 9-3
11/8
★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 2 · 9-3
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 111 🐾

SR 111 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 2 · 9-3
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 113 🐾

SR 113 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 2 · 9-3
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 96 🐾

SR 96 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 2 · 9-0
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 89 🐾

SR 89 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 2 · 9-3
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 89 🐾

SR 89 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 2 · 9-0
20/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Tawakal
Confidence: Speculative

Tawakal (SR 96, 6/4) is the Crisford yard's #1 runner — confirmed by the significantly superior jockey booking (Jack Mitchell over Rob Hornby on Social Symbol) and the explosive market support of 33% inward move. The Form:12 shows a horse who has won and placed in two starts and is stepping up three class tiers with connections confident enough to back it accordingly. Within the Crisford pair, Social Symbol (SR 89, drifted 40%) is clearly the second string. While Tawakal's SR of 96 is below the top SR horses in the field, this is a juvenile sprint Group 3 where rapid improvement is expected and the market intelligence here is unusually strong — a 33% steam in a nine-runner field is not noise. Moonrise (SR 111) is the main danger and a more proven commodity, but the meaningful drift of 19% on a horse with an established form profile suggests the market has found a reason to prefer Tawakal. Each-way alternative: Moonrise. Main danger: Moonrise — Moonrise (SR 111, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field with a tidy Form:121, a course win at Kempton, and DistFit:+ at 6f — the strongest proven profile in the race, and despite drifting 19% it remains the most credible form-based alternative.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Tawakal's SR of 96 is identical to Agamemnon and 15 points below Moonrise (SR 111) and 17 below Adaay of Scarlett (SR 113) — both of whom have demonstrated Group-level form that Tawakal's two-start F…
  • Form:12 means only two career starts; stepping up THREE class tiers into a Group 3 on just a maiden win and a second is a huge ask — connections' confidence may be misplaced if the horse hasn't been…
  • Moonrise (SR 111, Oisin Murphy, Andrew Balding 19% strike rate) has a Course:W1P1 record at Kempton AW, giving it a concrete surface and track advantage that Tawakal — with no course form — entirely…
  • The 33% inward market move, while notable, has driven Tawakal to 6/4 favourite, meaning the market is now pricing in significant confidence that must be justified by a horse with only two runs; Adaay…
Shortlist Tawakal, Moonrise, Adaay of Scarlett
Each-way: Moonrise Danger: Moonrise

🗺 The Course Class 1

6f Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Kempton (AW) Track and setting
Class 1 Race grade