Thirsk 15:50 RESULTED
Class 3 5 Sep 2026

Saturday 5 September Rudding Park Harrogate Handicap Stakes

Rudding Park Harrogate Handicap Stakes · 6f

Official Result

Rudding Park Harrogate Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Grasmere Boy (GB) Jason Hart · Julie Camacho
    11/2
  2. 13/2
  3. 6/1
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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 2 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Mostar Dreams silks
Mostar Dreams
Age 5 · 10-2
192439
97
84
94
5
10-2
18/1 FCST 14/1
Placed third two starts back and a winner six starts back, Mostar Dreams has experience of today's trip and ground and returns after a 28-day break, though her latest ninth is a concern and she carries 142 lb from stall one.
AI verdict

SR 84 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Dark Cloud Rising silks
Dark Cloud Rising
Age 4 · 9-13
0U1326
94
97
98
4
9-13
5/1 11/4 4/1
Dark Cloud Rising brings strong recent form to the table — second and third earlier in the campaign — and has experience of today's distance and going; the sixth last time out is the obvious concern.
AI verdict

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Ray Mon Dough silks
Ray Mon Dough
Age 3 · 9-11
-62618
94
78
94
3
9-11
8/1 8/1 6/1
Bounced back to win two starts back before finishing eighth last time out, so Ray Mon Dough blows hot and cold, though he has run over today's trip and returns on a sharp 19-day turnaround carrying 137 lb from stall five.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Midnight Thunder silks
Midnight Thunder
Age 4 · 9-11
9/40-5
92
86
99
4
9-11
13/2 4/1 13/2
Winless in his last four starts, Midnight Thunder nevertheless catches the eye rated 99 against an official mark of 92, and with experience of today's trip and going, he arrives in decent shape on a 20-day turnaround — the concern is that recent form has been too inconsistent to inspire full confidence.
AI verdict

SR 86 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Commanche Falls silks
Commanche Falls
Age 9 · 9-10
220703
91
93
104
9
9-10
15/2 9/2 6/1
Commanche Falls shaped with promise when third last time out, and his two seconds in recent starts highlight his consistency as a strong each-way threat; the concern is that he remains yet to win in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 93 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Dapper Valley silks
Dapper Valley
Age 5 · 9-8
703110
89
69
89
5
9-8
25/1 FCST 20/1
Ranked bottom two on our figures and unplaced last time out, Dapper Valley is hard to fancy despite back-to-back wins two and three starts back; he has run over today's distance and going before, but 134 lb is a stiff ask for a horse rated this low in the field.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Musical Touch silks
Musical Touch
Age 5 · 9-7
0-1710
88
93
94
5
9-7
6/1 7/1 6/1
Musical Touch won two starts back but was unplaced last time out, and 42 days off the track adds a fitness query; he has experience of today's trip and going, and his rating of 94 offers some encouragement, though he faces a stiff ask from stall 8 carrying 133 lb.
AI verdict

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Grasmere Boy silks
Grasmere Boy
Age 3 · 9-6
221155
89
94
88
3
9-6
9/2 6/1 7/2
Grasmere Boy has run over today's trip and returns on a 28-day break, but back-to-back fifth-place finishes in his last two starts make him hard to fancy, and he ranks ninth of ten on our figures, leaving little reason to oppose that pessimistic read.
AI verdict

SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
The Good Biscuit silks
The Good Biscuit
Age 5 · 9-5
441161
86
89
87
5
9-5
17/2 6/1 17/2
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and carrying a big 131 lb, The Good Biscuit also has a trainer badly out of form at 4% over the past fortnight — hard to fancy despite three wins in his last six starts and experience over today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Fivethousandtoone silks
Fivethousandtoone
Age 8 · 8-12
220686
79
95
106
8
8-12
11/2 8/1 5/1
Fivethousandtoone holds a clear edge at the top of the ratings and has run over today's trip and going before, but he arrives winless in his last six starts and his recent finishes of sixth and eighth give pause — second twice in that sequence, though, suggests ability is there.
AI verdict

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Mostar Dreams 18/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 15.00 14/1 14/1 16/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 Bet365
2 Dark Cloud Rising 5/1 open 3.75 5/1 open 3.75 4/1 open 4.00 4/1 open 4.00 11/2 open 4.00 5/1 open 3.75 11/2 William Hill
3 Ray Mon Dough 8/1 open 11.00 15/2 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.50 7/1 open 9.50 8/1 Bet365
4 Midnight Thunder 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.00 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 Bet365
5 Commanche Falls 15/2 open 5.50 15/2 open 7.00 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 15/2 open 6.50 8/1 open 6.50 8/1 Betfred
6 Dapper Valley 25/1 20/1 22/1 22/1 25/1 open 23.00 22/1 25/1 Bet365
7 Musical Touch 6/1 open 8.00 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 Bet365
8 Grasmere Boy 9/2 open 9.00 9/2 open 8.00 4/1 open 7.00 4/1 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 7/2 open 7.00 9/2 Bet365
9 The Good Biscuit 17/2 open 7.00 9/1 open 8.00 17/2 open 8.00 17/2 open 8.00 9/1 open 8.00 17/2 open 8.00 9/1 Paddy Power
10 Fivethousandtoone 11/2 open 15.00 11/2 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 Betfred

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Dark Cloud Rising

Speculative

Dark Cloud Rising owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (54) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/1 David O'Meara Billy Garritty
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Fivethousandtoone

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/2 · Tim Easterby
✓ Value Signal

Dapper Valley

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Michael Keady
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +20.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
77 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.2 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Dark Cloud Rising
58.1 5/1
2 10. Fivethousandtoone
55.8 11/2
3 8. Grasmere Boy
54.0 9/2
4 5. Commanche Falls
52.3 15/2
5 7. Musical Touch
51.5 6/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Grasmere Boy
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 3 · 9-6
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 94 🐾

SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 9-13
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 8 · 8-12
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 95 🐾

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 5 · 9-7
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 93 🐾

SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 9-11
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 9 · 9-10
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 93 🐾

SR 93 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 3 · 9-11
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 5 · 9-5
17/2
★★★☆☆ SR 89 🐾

SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 5 · 10-2
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Grasmere Boy
Confidence: Speculative

Grasmere Boy (SR 94, 6/1, Wgt 9-6) combines the best cluster of signals in this field. The form string 221155 shows consistent front-running form at this class level, dropping down a tier (ClassMv:↓1) which is a clear positive, and DistFit:+ confirms proven ability over 6f. Jason Hart (14% career strike rate, 1376 runners) is the strongest jockey booking in the field by strike rate, and the market has gently firmed (Mkt:in7%), indicating quiet support. At 9-6, the weight is lighter than the top three in the handicap, giving a meaningful lbs advantage over Mostar Dreams (10-2) and Dark Cloud Rising (9-13). The SR of 94 is competitive in this Class 3 field, and the class drop from a higher tier removes a significant obstacle. Each-way alternative: Dark Cloud Rising. Main danger: Fivethousandtoone — A 48% market move in is the loudest betting signal in the race, and a MarkMv:-16 means this horse is running off a mark 16lb below its last win — the most favourable mark reassignment in the field — which could easily override the DistFit:- concern if connections have specifically targeted today's trip.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 221155 shows Grasmere Boy has finished 5th in each of his last two starts — a consecutive slide that suggests current form is deteriorating rather than bouncing back.
  • As a 3-year-old carrying 9-6, Grasmere Boy faces seasoned older horses (aged 4-9) at Class 3 level; the class drop may be offset by the age/experience disadvantage at this sharp 6f track.
  • Fivethousandtoone (SR 95, 9/2 market leader) has drifted to favourite on a 48% market move in and carries only 8-12 — a 8lb pull versus Grasmere Boy — with superior SR and a trainer whose massive sam…
  • Mkt:in7% is a modest move and MarkMv:+4 indicates a 4-point handicap mark rise, meaning the handicapper has already reacted upward to earlier form, narrowing the value in the class drop.
Shortlist Grasmere Boy, Dark Cloud Rising, The Good Biscuit, Fivethousandtoone
Each-way: Dark Cloud Rising Danger: Fivethousandtoone

🗺 The Course Class 3

6f Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Thirsk Track and setting
Class 3 Race grade