Eclipse Chaser has run over today's trip and on the going, and a fresh 27 days since his last outing, plus a third four starts back, hint at a bounce-back from 119 off 168 lb, with our rating of 120 placing him third of 15. The risk is obvious: he was pulled up last time and has finished no better than seventh since that third.
Form last 6P-387P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
76SR120RPR119OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Jackson Lamb is yet to win in his last six, though a second three starts back shows he can go close, and he has run over today's trip and going; against that, he was unplaced last time out, carries 162 lb and comes from a yard 0 from 22 lately.
Form last 6P75250
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR117RPR116OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Two wins in his last five starts, including back-to-back victories three and four runs ago, but he was pulled up last time out after a fifth two starts back, and a struggling yard (2/38 in the last 14 days) adds doubt. He has run over today's trip and going and is quick back after 13 days, though 158 lb is a big burden.
Form last 6-U115P
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
98SR111RPR111OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 98 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Andys Flame was unplaced last time out but posted a third two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. A 64-day break, a trainer going 0/22 lately and 156 lb on an official mark of 103 hold him back, though our rating of 113 is better than that.
Form last 64-6030
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
76SR113RPR103OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Rich Belief arrives in cracking nick, second last time out and third in the two runs before that, with a win four starts back, fresh from a 15-day break and having run over today's trip and going. The main risk is the hefty 156 lb he must carry.
Form last 67/1332
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
100SR118RPR113OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Rocky's Howya won last time out and has three wins in his last five starts, with a break of 36 days and experience of today's trip and going in his favour, but the 156 lb burden is a stiff ask off a mark of 116. Our rating of 118 has him only fifth of 15.
Form last 6-10101
★AI Rating★★★★☆
121SR118RPR116OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 121 backed by market confidence at 6/5 — a genuine contender.
Warm In Gorey is winless in his last five, unplaced last time and sixth in the two runs before, so he is hard to fancy back only eight days later under 152 lb. On the plus side, he has run over today's trip and going, and was third four and five starts back.
Form last 6-33660
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
70SR100RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Third last time out is a step up on his earlier efforts, and he has run over today's trip and going, but he is winless in his last five and returns after 36 days carrying 150 lb off an official mark of 108.
Form last 687-403
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
103SR110RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Marlpark is hard to fancy after pulling up last time, falling two starts back and pulling up again three runs ago, and he is winless in his last five after 69 days off. He has run over today's trip and going, but 150 lb is a big burden and our rating ranks him 14th of 15.
Form last 60-4PFP
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
53SR99RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Migdam is hard to fancy, with just one win in his last five starts and a seventh and an eighth in the two runs before a fourth last time out, though that came only 13 days ago. He has run on today's going and our rating puts him 12th of 15, while 150 lb is a hefty burden.
Form last 6518-74
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
101SR108RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Tullyveery Lad has finished fifth in his last two starts and is winless in his last six, which makes him hard to fancy after a 46-day break. He has run over today's trip and going, and a second four starts back hints at ability, but 150 lb is a big ask.
Form last 6502U55
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
78SR108RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Black Heather was pulled up last time out, though a fifth two starts back and a third three starts back show he has a run in him, and he has tackled today's going before. Carrying 146 lb for a yard struggling at 1/43, he looks a midfield type on our rating of 113.
Form last 6/635P-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
99SR113RPR116OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 99 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Hello Johnjoe is hard to fancy after being pulled up last time out, and she has also been pulled up four starts back, with a seventh and a sixth between. She has run over today's trip and going, but she is winless in her last five and ranks last of 15 on our figures.
Form last 63P6-7P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR94RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Plontier's our second-ranked runner of 15, and his 127 sits well clear of his official mark of 119, while he has run over today's trip and going before and carries 146 lb. The main risk is form that has slipped, with a fourth four starts back followed by a sixth, a seventh and an unplaced run last time.
Form last 646/7-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
111SR127RPR119OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 111 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Shanroe is our top-rated runner despite being winless in his last four, with an eighth two starts back and a pulled up three starts back, but he's fresh from a run 12 days ago and has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 132 sits well clear of his official 106 off 146 lb.
Form last 68/P8-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR132RPR106OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Rocky's Howya owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (67) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/8Declan QueallyKevin Healy
81%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Allo Al Khawaneej
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · C Byrnes✓ Value Signal
Andys Flame
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · John McConnell◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Rocky's Howya (SR:121, 6/5) is comfortably the class-leader in this €6,000 claimer, sitting 18 SR points clear of the next best contender and carrying a workable 11-2. The market has steamed 14% to 6/5, confirming professional confidence, and the form string -10101 shows consistent winning pattern at this level — alternating wins in a way that suggests a fresh, on-song horse. Course form of W1P1 at Clonmel is a meaningful positive on a specialist track, and the trainer Declan Queally runs at an 18% strike rate. The only question mark is DistFit:~ rather than confirmed, but the SR advantage over the field is so pronounced that it overrides that concern.
Each-way alternative: Allo Al Khawaneej.
Main danger: Allo Al Khawaneej — Allo Al Khawaneej (SR:103, 7/1) carries just 10-10 — a 6lb weight advantage over Rocky's Howya — and at age 6 has scope for improvement, though GoingFit:- on today's good ground is a genuine concern that the market appears to be pricing in.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
DistFit:~ (unconfirmed) is a live concern at a track where Clonmel's unique configuration can expose stamina doubts; at 10yo any fitness question compounds the risk.
Jockey Kevin Healy(7) is a claiming apprentice on just 10% strike rate from only 158 rides — a meaningful downgrade in the saddle for odds-on favourite in a wide-open 15-runner claimer.
The alternating win pattern (-10101) means today is a 'losing turn' in the sequence, with the most recent run being a win 36 days ago; that rhythm has been consistent throughout the form string.
At 6/5 in a €6,000 claimer with 15 runners, any interference or pace collapse is disproportionately punishing — Holy Joe (Gordon Elliott/Jack Kennedy, 22% strike rate) represents significant class of…
ShortlistRocky's Howya, Allo Al Khawaneej, Holy Joe, Rich Belief
Each-way: Allo Al KhawaneejDanger: Allo Al Khawaneej