Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap · 5f3y
SR 63 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
SR 48 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
SR 50 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 22 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
SR 35 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dandy Land | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 2 El Fontenaro | 9/4 open 3.75 | 2/1 open 3.25 | 2/1 open 3.50 | 2/1 open 3.50 | 2/1 open 3.50 | 2/1 open 3.50 | 9/4 Bet365 |
| 3 Steel Magnolia | 5/2 open 2.88 | 5/2 open 3.00 | 5/2 open 2.88 | 5/2 open 2.88 | 5/2 open 2.88 | 5/2 open 2.75 | 5/2 Bet365 |
| 4 Banish Misfortune | 16/1 open 19.00 | 16/1 open 26.00 | 16/1 open 21.00 | 16/1 open 21.00 | 16/1 open 21.00 | 16/1 open 21.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 5 One Cool Bear | 12/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 open 9.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 open 10.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Gold Inn | 80/1 open 67.00 | 100/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 open 41.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 100/1 Paddy Power |
| 7 Smart Sioux | 66/1 open 41.00 | 100/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 open 51.00 | 100/1 Paddy Power |
| 8 Ballysax Lil' Mick | 11/2 open 6.00 | 11/2 | 11/2 open 6.00 | 11/2 open 6.00 | 11/2 open 6.00 | 11/2 open 6.00 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 9 Hastily | 22/1 open 26.00 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 18/1 | 20/1 | 22/1 Bet365 |
| 10 Star Allure | 12/1 open 26.00 | 10/1 open 26.00 | 10/1 open 26.00 | 10/1 open 26.00 | 10/1 open 26.00 | 9/1 open 26.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
El Fontenaro owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 63 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 50 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 48 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 35 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
El Fontenaro (SR:71, 9/4) is the clear class standout in this modest €6,000 handicap — the SR-71 is the highest in the field by 5 points and represents a meaningful quality edge at this level. The market has shortened 7% since opening, confirming professional confidence, and at 9/4 the implied probability (~31%) closely matches my estimate. The DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags are a genuine concern, but in a field this weak, the SR advantage and market movement override those reservations; no rival combines comparable ability with better going/distance form. Days:2 is tight but connections have clearly chosen this race deliberately given the market move. Each-way alternative: Steel Magnolia. Main danger: Steel Magnolia — Steel Magnolia (SR:66, 15/8) carries 2lb less than El Fontenaro, has W.J. Lee booked — a 16% career strike-rate jockey that McCreery clearly trusts — and the yard's #1 based on market position, making it the most likely to capitalise if El Fontenaro's very quick turnaround (Days:2) proves costly.