Ayr 14:30 RESULTED
Class 1 18 Sep 2026

Last Friday British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed Race)

British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed Race) · 0m5f0y

Official Result

British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Mussab (GB) Oisin Orr · Richard & Peter Fahey
    9/2
  2. 15/2
  3. 4/1
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Settled
  • 8 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 11 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Caturra Lights silks
Caturra Lights
Age 2 · 9-5
3391
74
61
82
2
9-5
22/1 28/1 22/1
Caturra Lights won last time out and has experience over today's trip, but a difficult ninth two starts back followed a pair of thirds before that, suggesting consistency remains a question; the 131 lb burden will test him from stall 2.
AI verdict

SR 61 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Dance A Jig silks
Dance A Jig
Age 2 · 9-5
22019
96
98
96
2
9-5
7/1 5/1 13/2
Dance A Jig ran out a winner two starts back and filled the runner-up spot on two further occasions in recent starts, and he has experience over today's trip with 131 lb from stall 3; the main risk is that disappointing ninth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Dubai Champion silks
Dubai Champion
Age 2 · 9-5
43120
87
97
85
2
9-5
3/1
Won three starts back and was second two starts back, but unplaced last time out clouds the picture; Dubai Champion has run over today's trip and returns on a fresh 27-day break, though carrying 131 lb from stall one adds another variable for this colt.
AI verdict

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Hickory Lad silks
Hickory Lad
Age 2 · 9-5
121383
99
110
102
2
9-5
6/4 FCST 18/13
Hickory Lad ran third last time out and boasts a good recent record with two wins in his last six starts, including a victory four starts back. Fit enough at 27 days between runs and having experience over today's trip, the 131 lb burden from stall seven is the one query.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.

5
Mussab silks
Mussab
Age 2 · 9-5
3361
97
105
103
2
9-5
4/1 5/2 4/1
Mussab arrives on the back of a win last time out, and has run over today's trip, with his 103 rating topping the field; the sixth two starts back is the one blot to smooth over.
AI verdict

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Underdog silks
Underdog
Age 2 · 9-5
105099
82
57
88
2
9-5
40/1 FCST 33/1
Underdog shaped with more promise than his bare figures suggest and our rating of 88 points to a horse capable of outrunning his official mark, with experience of today's trip and conditions in his favour; the worry is a string of disappointing efforts in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

7
Nour silks
Nour
Age 2 · 9-0
331
81
75
79
2
9-0
14/1 7/1 11/1
Ranked near the foot of the field on our figures, Nour faces a stiff ask, though she does arrive on the back of a win last time out and has run over today's trip, giving connections at least some cause for optimism.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Sydney Grace silks
Sydney Grace
Age 2 · 9-0
612
75
58
73
2
9-0
22/1 16/1 20/1
Ranked bottom on our figures and that speed rating of 62 offers little encouragement, though she does bring recent winning form two starts back and has run over today's trip, giving connections at least some hope from stall eight.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Caturra Lights 22/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 41.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 29.00 25/1 open 34.00 25/1 open 29.00 25/1 Paddy Power
2 Dance A Jig 7/1 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 6.00 13/2 open 7.00 7/1 Bet365
3 Dubai Champion 3/1 open 5.50 7/2 7/2 open 4.00 7/2 open 4.00 10/3 open 6.00 7/2 open 4.00 7/2 Paddy Power
4 Hickory Lad 6/4 open 2.75 6/4 6/4 6/4 6/4 open 2.38 11/8 open 2.50 6/4 Bet365
5 Mussab 4/1 open 3.50 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.00 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 Bet365
6 Underdog 40/1 open 51.00 33/1 open 41.00 40/1 40/1 33/1 33/1 open 51.00 40/1 Bet365
7 Nour 14/1 open 8.00 14/1 open 10.00 11/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 11.00 14/1 Bet365
8 Sydney Grace 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 26.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 29.00 22/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Hickory Lad

Live signal

Hickory Lad owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (61) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

6/4 Phillip Makin Sam James
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Mussab

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

4/1 · Richard & Peter Fahey
✓ Value Signal

Underdog

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Richard Spencer
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Live signal
61 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +23.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
93 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.2 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Hickory Lad
59.6 6/4
2 5. Mussab
58.8 4/1
3 3. Dubai Champion
57.8 3/1
4 2. Dance A Jig
54.3 7/1
5 7. Nour
45.8 14/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Hickory Lad
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 2 · 9-5
6/4
★★★★☆ SR 110 🐾

Favourable weight of 9-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.

3
Age 2 · 9-5
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 2 · 9-5
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 105 🐾

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 2 · 9-5
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 98 🐾

SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 2 · 9-0
14/1
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Hickory Lad
Confidence: Speculative

Hickory Lad carries the highest SR in the field at 110 — a clear 5-point edge over Mussab (SR 105) and 12-13 points over the next group — and is sent off at 6/4 with no market drift, suggesting stable confidence. The form string 121383 shows a consistent presence at the sharp end, including recent wins, and the DistFit:+ confirms he handles today's 5f trip. Running off the same class (ClassMv:=) means no step into the unknown, and the flat 9-5 weight in an all-level-weights Listed field removes any burden concern. The GoingFit:? applies to the whole field given juvenile inexperience on soft, but Hickory Lad's SR superiority and market position make him the most reliable vehicle in an uncertain race. Each-way alternative: Dubai Champion. Main danger: Mussab — Mussab (SR 105, 4/1) was a last-time-out winner and while drifting 18% is a concern, the Fahey yard carries a 10% SR from 570 runners and Oisin Orr's 14% strike rate gives the combination firepower if that drift proves misleading.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 121383 ends in an '8' and a '3' — the last two runs show a clear regression from winning form, with the most recent effort only a third-place finish 27 days ago.
  • Trainer Phillip Makin's 12% strike rate is the second-lowest among the leading stables here; Ralph Beckett (19%) and K.R. Burke (20%) both saddle runners with significantly sharper yard form.
  • GoingFit:? is flagged for Hickory Lad specifically, meaning his ability to handle today's Ayr soft ground is unproven — a real vulnerability in a 5f juvenile Listed race where the draw and ground can…
  • Mussab (SR 105) arrives on a tighter 15-day turnaround showing fresher legs, and while drifting in the market, his form string 3361 ends in a win — a more upward trajectory than Hickory Lad's recent…
Shortlist Hickory Lad, Mussab, Dubai Champion
Each-way: Dubai Champion Danger: Mussab

🗺 The Course Class 1

0m5f0y Distance to cover
Soft Expected going
8 Confirmed runners
Ayr Track and setting
Class 1 Race grade