Newbury 17:15 RESULTED
Class 4 18 Sep 2026

Last Friday Fitzdares Handicap Stakes (Div I) (GBBPlus Race)

Fitzdares Handicap Stakes (Div I) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m2f

Official Result

Fitzdares Handicap Stakes (Div I) (GBBPlus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner River Card (IRE) David Egan · Brian Meehan
    15/8
  2. 7/4F
  3. 14/1
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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 10 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Accademia silks
Accademia Non-Runner
Age 3 · 9-2
4-5115
78
78OR
3
9-2
SP
1
Parlando silks
Parlando
Age 7 · 10-1
368814
86
61
93
7
10-1
22/1 18/1 22/1
Parlando won two starts back and brings strong ratings appeal as the top-ranked runner in this field, with experience of today's trip and going in his favour; the fourth last time out tempers enthusiasm slightly, but 141 lb from stall 8 after a 36-day break looks a fair ask.
AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

2
Mohaaraj silks
Mohaaraj
Age 3 · 9-10
4-115
86
76
91
3
9-10
16/1 8/1 16/1
Mohaaraj won two of his last four starts, including back-to-back victories three and two runs back, and has experience of today's trip and conditions, but 97 days off the track is a concern, particularly with the trainer firing at just 5% recently.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
River Card silks
River Card
Age 3 · 9-10
210-4
86
92
90
3
9-10
2/1 5/4 2/1
River Card won three starts back and finished second four starts back, giving him a clear profile of ability, and drawn from stall one he arrives on a quick turnaround of 23 days — that recent fourth is the flag to watch.
AI verdict

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Tambora silks
Tambora
Age 3 · 9-8
5-6641
84
85
87
3
9-8
7/2 9/4 7/2
Tambora won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, but he arrives 76 days after that victory with a trainer operating at just 5% in the last 14 days, and his four starts before that win brought only mid-field finishes.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Loz Vegas silks
Loz Vegas
Age 3 · 9-7
8-6540
83
85
89
3
9-7
11/4 9/2 9/4
Winless in his last five starts, Loz Vegas nonetheless brings distance and going experience and an eye-catching rating of 89 that suggests he is ahead of his official mark — the risk is that a 50-day absence leaves his fitness in question.
AI verdict

SR 85 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Perfect Scoundrel silks
Perfect Scoundrel
Age 4 · 9-6
863214
77
82
80
4
9-6
9/1 10/1 8/1
SR 82 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Mythical Bird silks
Mythical Bird
Age 4 · 9-6
300315
77
77
80
4
9-6
11/1 14/1 9/1
Ranked seventh of nine on our figures, Mythical Bird faces a stiff ask, though she does bring distance and going experience to the table and a win two starts back offers some encouragement; fifth last time out does little to inspire confidence.
AI verdict

SR 77 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Gemmari silks
Gemmari
Age 4 · 9-2
5-1750
73
50
77
4
9-2
50/1 22/1 40/1
Gemmari has been beaten in each of his last three starts and returns after a 133-day absence with a trainer operating at just 5% over the past fortnight; ranked eighth of nine on our figures, he makes little appeal despite having run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 50 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

10
Raintown silks
Raintown
Age 6 · 8-10
423123
67
73
77
6
8-10
16/1 9/1 16/1
Raintown is ranked bottom of the field on our figures and faces a stiff ask at these weights, though he arrives in fair nick — third last time out and a winner three starts back — and has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 73 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Accademia
1 Parlando 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 Bet365
2 Mohaaraj 16/1 open 9.00 16/1 open 9.50 18/1 open 9.50 18/1 open 9.50 18/1 open 9.50 16/1 open 9.50 18/1 Coral
3 River Card 2/1 open 3.50 9/4 open 2.63 9/4 open 2.50 9/4 open 2.50 9/4 open 2.25 9/4 open 2.50 9/4 Paddy Power
4 Tambora 7/2 open 3.25 4/1 open 4.00 7/2 open 3.50 7/2 open 3.50 4/1 open 3.50 4/1 open 3.50 4/1 Paddy Power
5 Loz Vegas 11/4 open 5.50 5/2 open 5.50 5/2 open 5.50 5/2 open 5.50 5/2 open 6.00 9/4 open 5.50 11/4 Bet365
6 Perfect Scoundrel 9/1 open 11.00 17/2 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 17/2 open 12.00 8/1 open 12.00 9/1 Bet365
7 Mythical Bird 11/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 10/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 15.00 11/1 Bet365
9 Gemmari 50/1 open 23.00 40/1 open 26.00 66/1 open 26.00 66/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 26.00 66/1 Coral
10 Raintown 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Loz Vegas

Speculative

Loz Vegas owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 Peter Chapple-Hyam Rossa Ryan
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

River Card

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

2/1 · Brian Meehan
✓ Value Signal

Gemmari

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · Richard Hannon
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 5. Loz Vegas
57.7 11/4
2 3. River Card
55.3 2/1
3 4. Tambora
54.7 7/2
4 7. Mythical Bird
48.1 11/1
5 6. Perfect Scoundrel
47.6 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Loz Vegas
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 3 · 9-10
2/1
★★★☆☆ SR 92 🐾

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-7
11/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 85 🐾

SR 85 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 3 · 9-8
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 4 · 9-6
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 4 · 9-6
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 77 🐾

SR 77 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 3 · 9-10
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 6 · 8-10
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Loz Vegas
Confidence: Speculative

Loz Vegas (SR:85, 7/2) carries the lightest weight of the main contenders at 9-7 and has steamed in 26% in the market — the strongest mover in the field — suggesting informed money behind a Peter Chapple-Hyam runner whose 14% strike rate is solid and Rossa Ryan (18% career strike rate) is the most accomplished jockey booking here. Although the form string 8-6540 looks modest, the class drop of two tiers (ClassMv:↓2) is a significant competitive advantage, and GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good ground. The weight edge over River Card (9-10) and Tambora (9-8) matters on good ground at 1m2f, and the sharp market move is not easily dismissed. Each-way alternative: River Card. Main danger: River Card — River Card (SR:92, 15/8) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin, David Egan is a high-quality booking, and even with an 8% drift the market still has it as favourite — if the untested distance-and-going combination proves no issue, the SR advantage could prove decisive.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 8-6540 shows Loz Vegas has not finished better than 4th in last four starts, with a zero (last) on the most recent run — raw form is genuinely poor regardless of class context.
  • River Card (SR:92, 15/8 fav) rates 7 points higher on SR and has fresher form over a shorter 23-day absence; the class drop may not be enough to bridge a meaningful ability gap against the clear top-…
  • Mythical Bird (10/1) and Perfect Scoundrel (17/2) have both steamed in — 30% and 23% respectively — suggesting the market move for Loz Vegas is not uniquely informed; multiple runners attract money,…
  • Peter Chapple-Hyam's small yard (223 runners in sample) makes the 14% strike rate statistically fragile, and a 50-day layoff following a last-place finish raises fitness/confidence questions for a ho…
Shortlist Loz Vegas, River Card, Tambora, Mythical Bird
Each-way: River Card Danger: River Card

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m2f Distance to cover
Good Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Newbury Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade