Downpatrick 14:12 RESULTED
18 Sep 2026

Last Friday Randox Handicap Hurdle

Randox Handicap Hurdle · 2m1f165y

Official Result

Randox Handicap Hurdle

Confirmed
  1. Winner Calm Flight Ahead (IRE) Shane O'Callaghan · P J Rothwell
    4/1
  2. 3/1
  3. 9/1
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Settled
  • 12 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 11 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Migdam silks
Migdam
Age 7 · 11-12
518-7
110
78
112
7
11-12
14/1 16/1 12/1
Migdam won three starts back and returns on a quick 14-day turnaround having already shown he handles today's trip and conditions, with our rating of 112 marking him out as a leading rival; the main concern is his back-to-back seventh and eighth placing in more recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Portnacoo silks
Portnacoo
Age 8 · 11-8
4PU94-
106
64
115
8
11-8
22/1 11/1 22/1
Portnacoo catches the eye as the top-rated runner in this field, and having experience of today's trip and conditions, he holds strong claims despite carrying 162 lb; the main concern is a 212-day absence leaving fitness on trust.
AI verdict

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

3
Gone For Tea silks
Gone For Tea
Age 8 · 11-6
10/PP-
104
68
106
8
11-6
22/1 12/1 18/1
Long absence of 264 days is the obvious concern, and two pulled-up efforts in her most recent starts make form reading difficult, though she did score four starts back and has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

4
Chantilly Wings silks
Chantilly Wings
Age 5 · 11-5
45-234
103
95
105
5
11-5
7/1 7/2 7/1
Chantilly Wings arrives fresh enough on 23 days' rest and has run over today's trip and going, yet he remains winless in his last five starts, with a fourth last time out and a second three starts back his best recent showings under a hefty 159 lb burden.
AI verdict

SR 95 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Dairy Force silks
Dairy Force
Age 7 · 11-5
2253F6
103
95
107
7
11-5
5/1 13/2 9/2
Dairy Force has run over today's trip and going, and his recent form shows some encouragement — a third three starts back and seconds five and six starts back — but he's winless in his last six, carries a hefty 159 lb, and that fall two starts back is a concern.
AI verdict

SR 95 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Quint Major silks
Quint Major
Age 8 · 11-5
040-75
103
98
104
8
11-5
9/2 13/2 7/2
Winless in his last five starts and ranked eighth of twelve, Quint Major faces a stiff ask under 159 lb, though he has run over today's distance and going before and a 46-day break may have freshened him for a revival.
AI verdict

SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Earl Neigh silks
Earl Neigh
Age 7 · 11-4
36-P00
102
64
99
7
11-4
25/1 25/1 22/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked tenth of twelve on our figures, Earl Neigh makes little appeal here; he was pulled up two starts back and has been unplaced in both subsequent runs, though he has experience of today's going and returns after a 46-day break.
AI verdict

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

8
Lilac Lady silks
Lilac Lady
Age 6 · 11-4
3-2417
102
85
98
6
11-4
11/1 9/1 11/1
Ranked well below the principals on our figures and carrying a hefty 158 lb, Lilac Lady is hard to fancy off a 43-day absence, despite her win two starts back and experience over today's distance and going.
AI verdict

SR 85 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Beggars Rock silks
Beggars Rock
Age 7 · 11-2
3-6011
100
111
110
7
11-2
2/1 9/4 32/17
Beggars Rock arrives in fine nick, winning back-to-back heading into this, and he has experience over today's trip and conditions. Carrying 156 lb is the main question, but his current form is hard to ignore.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

10
Derry Lad silks
Derry Lad
Age 8 · 11-0
F8/29-
98
86
102
8
11-0
8/1 9/1 8/1
Winless in his last four starts, with a fall and two disappointing efforts bookending a second two starts back, Derry Lad is hard to fancy carrying 154 lb ranked ninth of twelve on our figures, though he has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Viceregent silks
Viceregent
Age 9 · 11-0
650P/0
98
70
108
9
11-0
66/1 33/1 66/1
Winless in his last five starts and pulled up two runs back, Viceregent arrives here 21 days on with experience of today's trip and conditions and a rating of 108 suggesting more than his official mark implies — though that recent sequence, including another unplaced effort last time, remains the concern.
AI verdict

SR 70 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

12
Calm Flight Ahead silks
Calm Flight Ahead
Age 5 · 10-7
000-P1
91
91
89
5
10-7
10/3
Ranked last of 12 on our figures, Calm Flight Ahead makes it hard to build a case despite winning last time out; that victory was sandwiched by a pull-up and three unplaced efforts in recent starts, leaving his form fragile. Distance and going experience at least means conditions hold no fresh test.
AI verdict

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Migdam 14/1 open 29.00 12/1 open 41.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 14/1 Bet365
2 Portnacoo 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 Bet365
3 Gone For Tea 22/1 open 29.00 18/1 open 13.00 20/1 20/1 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 19.00 22/1 Bet365
4 Chantilly Wings 7/1 open 6.00 15/2 open 4.50 15/2 open 5.00 15/2 open 5.00 15/2 open 5.00 15/2 open 6.00 15/2 Paddy Power
5 Dairy Force 5/1 open 8.50 9/2 open 7.50 5/1 open 8.00 5/1 open 8.00 5/1 open 8.00 5/1 open 8.00 5/1 Bet365
6 Quint Major 9/2 open 9.50 7/2 open 7.50 4/1 open 8.00 4/1 open 8.00 4/1 open 8.00 4/1 open 8.00 9/2 Bet365
7 Earl Neigh 25/1 open 41.00 22/1 open 29.00 25/1 25/1 25/1 22/1 open 26.00 25/1 Bet365
8 Lilac Lady 11/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 11.00 12/1 Paddy Power
9 Beggars Rock 2/1 open 3.25 15/8 open 3.25 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 Bet365
10 Derry Lad 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 open 10.00 8/1 open 11.00 8/1 Bet365
11 Viceregent 66/1 open 34.00 80/1 open 41.00 80/1 open 34.00 80/1 open 34.00 80/1 open 34.00 80/1 open 51.00 80/1 Paddy Power
12 Calm Flight Ahead 10/3 7/2 open 5.50 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 Paddy Power

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Beggars Rock

Live signal

Beggars Rock owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (62) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

2/1 Ian Patrick Donoghue Kevin Sexton
71% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Chantilly Wings

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/1 · Cian Collins
✓ Value Signal

Viceregent

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · Liam Lennon
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Live signal
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +23.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
91 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 9. Beggars Rock
60.9 2/1
2 4. Chantilly Wings
58.1 7/1
3 5. Dairy Force
56.8 5/1
4 6. Quint Major
56.4 9/2
5 12. Calm Flight Ahead
54.1 10/3
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Beggars Rock
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

9
Age 7 · 11-2
2/1
★★★★☆ SR 111 🐾

Favourable weight of 11-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

12
Age 5 · 10-7
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 91 🐾

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 8 · 11-5
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 98 🐾

SR 98 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 7 · 11-5
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 95 🐾

SR 95 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 5 · 11-5
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 95 🐾

SR 95 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 8 · 11-0
8/1
★★★☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 6 · 11-4
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 85 🐾

SR 85 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 7 · 11-12
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Beggars Rock
Confidence: Speculative

Beggars Rock (SR:111, 9/4) is the clear class leader in this field by a significant margin — 13 SR points clear of the next-best Quint Major (SR:98). The form string 3-6011 shows back-to-back wins in the most recent two starts, demonstrating peak current form, and the horse runs off a mark 13lb lower than at last win (MarkMv:-13), giving a real handicap advantage. The market is confident at 9/4 favourite, and the tongue-tie plus bar addition (HG:tb) suggests connections are serious. While GoingFit is only moderate (~) and DistFit is unproven (?), the SR dominance and in-form trainer (11%, 446 runners) with a solid jockey booking (Kevin Sexton 9%, 392) provide the strongest multi-signal case in the race. Each-way alternative: Quint Major. Main danger: Quint Major — Quint Major (SR:98, 9/2) has steamed in 38% in the market — the largest positive move aside from Migdam — carries a competitive DistFit:+ at this trip and connections clearly believe it is well-placed off a 46-day freshen-up.

Case against 4 clamped
  • DistFit is unproven (?) — connections have not confirmed Beggars Rock stays today's trip, a critical unknown when the horse is sent off favourite.
  • GoingFit rated only moderate (~) at Downpatrick today; both recent wins may have come on different ground, meaning the form string 3-6011 could flatter on this surface.
  • Quint Major (SR:98, 9/2) has drifted market interest in by 38% today, suggesting significant market support for the main danger, narrowing Beggars Rock's implied edge despite the SR gap.
  • Carrying 11-2 off a -13lb mark drop invites a penalty or reassessment signal — while the mark is lower, the weight is still one of the higher burdens in the field relative to rivals on 11-0 or 10-7.
Shortlist Beggars Rock, Quint Major, Calm Flight Ahead, Dairy Force
Each-way: Quint Major Danger: Quint Major

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m1f165y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
12 Confirmed runners
Downpatrick Track and setting