Newbury 17:50 RESULTED
Class 4 18 Sep 2026

Last Friday Fitzdares Handicap Stakes (Div II) (GBBPlus Race)

Fitzdares Handicap Stakes (Div II) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m2f

Official Result

Fitzdares Handicap Stakes (Div II) (GBBPlus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Empirical (IRE) Kieran Shoemark · Ed Walker
    9/4
  2. 2/1F
  3. 3/1
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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 10 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Sweet Reward silks
Sweet Reward
Age 9 · 10-1
211908
86
65
93
9
10-1
14/1 16/1 12/1
Sweet Reward won twice in his last six starts and returns fit on 18 days' rest, with experience of today's trip and going and a rating of 93 suggesting he holds strong claims from stall 2; the risk is his last two runs both disappointed.
AI verdict

SR 65 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Law Court silks
Law Court
Age 3 · 9-10
212926
86
88
94
3
9-10
15/8 5/1 3/2
Law Court shaped with promise when second two starts back and has run over today's trip and going, with his 94 rating just enough to make him top-rated here; the trainer's lean spell is the one note of caution, but on ratings he sets the standard from stall 8.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Dark Whisper silks
Dark Whisper
Age 3 · 9-9
2310
85
87
88
3
9-9
SP 15/2 7/1
Dark Whisper showed smart variety in his recent starts — placed second and third before winning two starts back — but he was unplaced last time out and returns after 50 days off, making fitness the key question at 135 lb.
AI verdict

SR 87 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Interstate silks
Interstate
Age 3 · 9-7
02-221
83
95
83
3
9-7
5/2 7/4 5/2
Ranked seventh of nine on our figures and with a speed rating of 74 that leaves him well held on these assessments, Interstate is hard to fancy at the weights, though a win and three seconds in his last four starts show he is in decent nick, and a trainer firing at 29% over the past fortnight offers some hope.
AI verdict

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Military Air silks
Military Air
Age 4 · 9-6
0-6058
77
51
82
4
9-6
40/1 28/1 33/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked eighth of nine on our figures, Military Air is hard to fancy on recent form — a string of mid-field and unplaced efforts does little to inspire confidence, though he has run over today's distance and going before and returns from 77 days off potentially freshened up.
AI verdict

SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

6
Empirical silks
Empirical
Age 3 · 9-6
-83112
82
95
86
3
9-6
10/3 2/1 3/1
Empirical arrives here on the back of back-to-back wins and was runner-up last time out, making him a consistent and lively threat over a trip and ground he has experience of; the main concern is a trainer who has been in a cold spell of late.
AI verdict

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Due To Henry silks
Due To Henry
Age 5 · 9-5
-25357
76
71
86
5
9-5
11/1 7/1 10/1
Due To Henry is winless in his last five starts, though a third three starts back shows he can get into the mix; the concern is a seventh last time out just three days ago, leaving fitness and current form both in question.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Double Red silks
Double Red
Age 5 · 9-2
844258
73
61
81
5
9-2
16/1
Double Red has been in the wars of late, eighth last time out and yet to win in his last six starts, though a second three starts back offers a crumb of comfort; ranked bottom of the field on our figures, he faces a stiff task from stall six off 128 lb.
AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

9
Lucky Luna silks
Lucky Luna
Age 3 · 8-12
46162
74
67
83
3
8-12
22/1 10/1 22/1
Runner-up last time out on a quick 17-day turnaround, Lucky Luna showed she retains ability, and her win three starts back gives her a form line to build on, though a struggling trainer at 5% recently and a wide draw nine are factors to weigh.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Sweet Reward 14/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 19.00 12/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 open 19.00 14/1 Bet365
2 Law Court 15/8 open 6.00 15/8 open 6.50 13/8 open 6.50 13/8 open 6.50 7/4 open 6.50 6/4 open 6.50 15/8 Bet365
3 Dark Whisper 15/2 open 9.00 7/1 open 8.50 7/1 open 9.00 7/1 open 9.00 7/1 open 9.00 7/1 open 9.00 15/2 Bet365
4 Interstate 5/2 5/2 open 2.75 5/2 open 2.75 5/2 open 2.75 11/4 open 2.75 5/2 open 2.75 11/4 William Hill
5 Military Air 40/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 40/1 Bet365
6 Empirical 10/3 open 3.00 3/1 open 3.50 3/1 open 3.25 10/3 open 3.25 3/1 open 3.25 7/2 open 3.25 7/2 Betfred
7 Due To Henry 11/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 8.00 10/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.50 11/1 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.50 11/1 Bet365
8 Double Red 16/1 16/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 19.00 16/1 Bet365
9 Lucky Luna 22/1 open 11.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Law Court

Speculative

Law Court owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

15/8 Richard Hannon Ryan Moore
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Interstate

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/2 · John & Thady Gosden
✓ Value Signal

Military Air

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Michael Blake
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
91 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.1 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.7 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Law Court
58.2 15/8
2 4. Interstate
57.3 5/2
3 6. Empirical
56.0 10/3
4 3. Dark Whisper
50.8 -
5 7. Due To Henry
46.5 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Interstate
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 3 · 9-10
15/8
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 3 · 9-7
5/2
★★★☆☆ SR 95 🐾

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-6
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 95 🐾

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 5 · 9-5
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 9 · 10-1
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 5 · 9-2
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Interstate
Confidence: Speculative

Interstate (SR 95, 15/8) shares the joint-highest SR in the field with Empirical but carries 9-7 — a 1lb weight advantage over Empirical's 9-6, and crucially has the superior connections combination of John & Thady Gosden (24% strike rate) and William Buick (25% strike rate). The form string 02-221 reads as a horse in a progressive upward curve, winning last time out, and the DistFit:+ confirms proven effectiveness at 1m2f. The drop of one class (ClassMv:↓1) and a mark that hasn't moved from the last win (MarkMv:=) mean the handicapper hasn't penalised the victory yet — ideal conditions for a follow-up. The blinkers (HG:b) are presumably retained from the winning run and represent no new risk. Each-way alternative: Dark Whisper. Main danger: Empirical — Empirical (SR 95, 9/4) shares the top SR and has a strong recent form line of -83112 showing three consecutive improving efforts culminating in back-to-back wins, and while the 6% market drift is a mild concern, GoingFit:+ and a proven course placing make it a genuine threat at a price the market still rates second-favourite.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Market has not moved in Interstate's favour — no drifting but equally no support signal; at 15/8 the market shows no confidence edge over Empirical at 9/4 despite the supposedly ideal conditions.
  • Empirical's form string -83112 shows two consecutive wins and a +6 mark rise still leaves it joint-highest SR; it is on a hotter winning streak (two on the bounce vs Interstate's one) and Kieran Shoe…
  • Ryan Moore on Law Court (SR:88, 6/1, Mkt:stable) is notable — Moore rarely takes 6/1 shots in handicaps without cause, and a 3yo lightly raced rival with a Stable flag could outrun its odds and troub…
  • Form string 02-221 contains a seasonal break (the dash) and a '0'; the progressive curve is only two runs deep, and a horse that has yet to prove it handles back-to-back quick handicap reassessments…
Shortlist Interstate, Empirical, Law Court, Dark Whisper
Each-way: Dark Whisper Danger: Empirical

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m2f Distance to cover
Good Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Newbury Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade