Downpatrick 14:47 RESULTED
18 Sep 2026

Last Friday MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (Div I) · 2m1f165y

Official Result

MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Might Be The One (IRE) Conor Stone-Walsh · Andrew McNamara
    6/1
  2. 3/1
  3. 11/2
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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 days, 11 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Tropical Twist silks
Tropical Twist
Age 5 · 12-0
P-5418
100
86
95
5
12-0
6/1 10/3 6/1
Tropical Twist won two starts back and has experience of today's trip and conditions, giving her a solid platform at a mark of 100, though she needs to bounce back sharply from a well-beaten eighth last time out.
AI verdict

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Two Can Plan silks
Two Can Plan
Age 6 · 11-8
067P-0
94
51
87
6
11-8
20/1 20/1 12/1
Yet to score in his last five starts, including a pull-up two runs back, Two Can Plan arrives 46 days fresh and has experience of today's trip and conditions, though a weight of 162 lb and a ranking of seventh of thirteen suggest he faces a stiff ask here.
AI verdict

SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

3
Mercurial Sea silks
Mercurial Sea
Age 5 · 11-7
6-2828
93
84
91
5
11-7
9/2 11/2 4/1
Winless in her last five starts, Mercurial Sea does have experience of today's distance and going to call upon and a runner-up finish two starts back offers some encouragement, but 161 lb is a stiff ask for a mare ranked mid-field here.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Whispering Hopes silks
Whispering Hopes
Age 6 · 11-7
F6083-
93
72
99
6
11-7
14/1 15/2 12/1
Whispering Hopes shaped with promise when third last time out and, rated 99 by us against an official mark of 93, she looks a leading danger here; the main concern is a 159-day absence carrying 161 lb.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Pahlavi silks
Pahlavi
Age 9 · 11-6
655P56
92
74
98
9
11-6
9/1 12/1 17/2
Winless in his last six starts, Pahlavi nonetheless brings strong fitness after just 18 days and has run over today's distance and going before; carrying 160 lb is a challenge, though his profile of 98 on our figures makes him an appealing each-way proposition at this level.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Might Be The One silks
Might Be The One
Age 5 · 11-2
25322-
88
87
89
5
11-2
11/4 31/19 11/4
Consistently placed in recent starts but yet to win, Might Be The One brings distance and going experience to this assignment, though 151 days off the track and a hefty 156 lb burden are the chief questions her supporters must answer.
AI verdict

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Paymelater silks
Paymelater
Age 7 · 11-1
46-706
87
65
100
7
11-1
16/1 11/1 16/1
Paymelater catches the eye on our ratings despite being winless in his last five starts, and he has experience of today's trip and conditions to call upon; the risk is that his recent string of midfield finishes suggests he needs to find a significant upturn in form.
AI verdict

SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

8
Glendaars Crystal silks
Glendaars Crystal
Age 5 · 10-8
7096
80
60
80OR
5
10-8
33/1 10/1 28/1
Lightly raced and open to further improvement, Glendaars Crystal has been winless in her last four starts but remains unexposed, and the 43-day break since her most recent outing leaves her with something to prove on her return here.
AI verdict

SR 60 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

9
Nelliestar silks
Nelliestar
Age 6 · 10-5
088
77
51
77OR
6
10-5
50/1 25/1 50/1
Unexposed and open to improvement, Nelliestar has been winless in her last three starts but remains lightly raced with more to offer, and 18 days since her latest run leaves her fit and ready to do better here carrying 145 lb.
AI verdict

SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

10
Greenroad Girl silks
Greenroad Girl
Age 4 · 10-3
P66
77
48
77OR
4
10-3
40/1 20/1 40/1
Unexposed and yet to win in her last three starts, Greenroad Girl returns after 18 days carrying 143 lb, and with limited form to dissect she remains one to watch for signs of progress rather than peak performance.
AI verdict

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

11
Lucky This Time silks
Lucky This Time
Age 5 · 10-3
/0000-
75
44
66
5
10-3
50/1 25/1 50/1
Winless in his last four starts and off the track for 397 days, Lucky This Time faces a stiff task returning from a lengthy absence, and his rating of 66 — ranking him tenth of thirteen — makes him hard to fancy, despite some experience on today's going.
AI verdict

SR 44 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

12
Doyen Og silks
Doyen Og
Age 7 · 10-0
0-P787
72
69
78
7
10-0
5/1 9/1 4/1
Winless in her last five starts, with a string of seventh, eighth, and seventh-place finishes plus a pull-up, Doyen Og makes little appeal here, ranked eighth of thirteen on our figures; she has run over today's trip and going before, and 33 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh, but that may be the limit of the case for her.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
John Dixen silks
John Dixen
Age 4 · 10-0
00-603
73
74
71
4
10-0
4/1 5/1 4/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked ninth of thirteen on our figures, John Dixen faces a stiff ask here, though a third last time out offers a rare flicker of encouragement; he has run over today's trip and going before and returns after 18 days carrying 140 lb.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Tropical Twist 6/1 open 4.33 15/2 open 4.50 15/2 open 4.50 15/2 open 4.50 13/2 open 4.50 15/2 open 4.50 15/2 Paddy Power
2 Two Can Plan 20/1 open 29.00 16/1 open 21.00 18/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 23.00 20/1 Bet365
3 Mercurial Sea 9/2 open 12.00 4/1 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 7.00 4/1 open 7.50 9/2 Bet365
4 Whispering Hopes 14/1 12/1 open 8.50 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 10.00 14/1 Bet365
5 Pahlavi 9/1 open 15.00 17/2 open 17.00 17/2 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 9/1 Bet365
6 Might Be The One 11/4 open 2.88 3/1 open 2.88 11/4 open 2.63 11/4 open 2.63 3/1 open 2.63 3/1 open 2.63 3/1 Paddy Power
7 Paymelater 16/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 Paddy Power
8 Glendaars Crystal 33/1 open 23.00 28/1 open 11.00 28/1 open 12.00 28/1 open 12.00 28/1 open 12.00 28/1 open 12.00 33/1 Bet365
9 Nelliestar 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 Bet365
10 Greenroad Girl 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 21.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 Bet365
11 Lucky This Time 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 Bet365
12 Doyen Og 5/1 open 12.00 4/1 open 15.00 9/2 open 10.00 9/2 open 10.00 9/2 open 10.00 9/2 open 10.00 5/1 Bet365
13 John Dixen 4/1 open 6.00 4/1 open 7.50 4/1 open 7.00 4/1 open 7.00 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Might Be The One

Speculative

Might Be The One owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 Andrew McNamara Conor Stone-Walsh
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Tropical Twist

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

6/1 · Gordon Elliott
✓ Value Signal

Glendaars Crystal

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Dermot A McLoughlin
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 6. Might Be The One
56.1 11/4
2 1. Tropical Twist
53.6 6/1
3 3. Mercurial Sea
52.8 9/2
4 13. John Dixen
51.8 4/1
5 12. Doyen Og
51.6 5/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Mercurial Sea
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

6
Age 5 · 11-2
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 87 🐾

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Age 4 · 10-0
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 5 · 11-7
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Age 7 · 10-0
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 5 · 12-0
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 9 · 11-6
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 6 · 11-7
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 7 · 11-1
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 65 🐾

SR 65 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

2
Age 6 · 11-8
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 51 🐾

SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Mercurial Sea
Confidence: Speculative

Mercurial Sea (SR:84, 11/2) is the most compelling combination of signals in this field. The market has shortened 16% since opening — meaningful money coming in — and crucially this is the only runner with a confirmed DistFit:+ at today's 2m1f trip, an edge that matters on a National Hunt track. The course form (W0P1 at Downpatrick) adds familiarity, and at 11-7 it carries 7lb less than top-weight Tropical Twist. Trainer Slevin at 7% is modest but the jockey Carl Millar's 11% strike rate for a conditional is respectable, and the form figure '2828' shows consistent competitiveness rather than boom-or-bust running. Each-way alternative: John Dixen. Main danger: John Dixen — John Dixen (SR:74, 9/2) is the most aggressively supported runner in the race with Mkt:in19%, carries a featherweight 10-0, is the yard's likely #1 for P J Rothwell (8%, 1,743 runners), and at age 4 carries the strongest progressive profile in the field — the market is clearly treating it as the stable's primary chance.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Might Be The One carries SR:87 (highest in field) on just 11-2, 5lb less than Mercurial Sea, and its '25322-' form shows consistent front-running competitiveness — at 2/1 the market clearly rates it…
  • Trainer Nigel Thomas Slevin runs at only 7% from 182 runners — a very small, low-strike-rate yard — and the course record of W0P1 means one visit with no win, limiting the familiarity edge the analys…
  • John Dixen (9/2, SR:74) has seen a sharp 19% market move in from the same powerful P J Rothwell stable (Stable:1 flag), is significantly lighter at 10-0 (7lb less than Mercurial Sea), and is 18 days…
  • Mercurial Sea's form figures '6-2828' include two 8th-place finishes; while showing consistency, two poor runs in a six-runner sequence suggest vulnerability when the pace is genuinely competitive ra…
Shortlist Mercurial Sea, John Dixen, Might Be The One, Tropical Twist
Each-way: John Dixen Danger: John Dixen

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m1f165y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Downpatrick Track and setting