Faoladh brings a win two starts back in his favour and has run over today's trip and going, but fifth last time out and two unplaced efforts before that win give this a mixed look; 140 lb from stall 17 adds to the questions at a rating of 69.
Form last 6690015
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR72RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Smoke Them Out arrives here in good heart after 22 days off, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 77 puts him firmly among the principals — third three starts back shows he can hit the frame, though he remains winless in recent starts and that streak is the main concern.
Form last 6020307
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR77RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Mehman has shown up well when third and second earlier in this run of form, and his rating of 77 sees him top-rated; winless in his last six starts, he has at least run over today's trip and going before, and from stall 16 off 139 lb he looks the one to beat.
Form last 6230057
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR77RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Slight Of Foot is winless in his last six starts, though a third two runs back offers a flicker of hope; he has run over today's trip and going, carries 138 lb from stall two, but an eighth last time out and inconsistent form overall makes this a tough ask.
Form last 6940938
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR71RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Yet to score in his last six starts, Send Harry nonetheless shaped with promise when fourth and second in that sequence, and has run over today's trip and going before; 137 lb from stall three is the challenge he must overcome.
Form last 6624950
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR69RPR66OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts with three unplaced efforts in his most recent three, Battle Borne ranks a lowly sixteenth of seventeen on our figures and looks hard to fancy here, though he has run over today's distance and going before and a second four starts back offers a reminder of better days.
Form last 6002080
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
38SR59RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts, with an unplaced effort on her most recent outing, In A Hurry is hard to fancy from stall 5 off 136 lb; a second three starts back offers the only recent encouragement, and she has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6-89260
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR63RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Yet to score in her last six starts and drawn from stall one carrying 135 lb, Una Matata has run over today's trip and going before, though a trainer in lean form — just one from 25 in the past fortnight — makes confidence hard to muster.
Form last 6635067
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR69RPR64OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Twice placed in his last six starts, including a third two runs back, Mickey The Steel has experience of today's trip and going and our rating of 77 puts him firmly in contention from stall nine; the chief concern is that he remains yet to win in recent starts.
Form last 6203736
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
57SR77RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
A winner three starts back, The Bear Trap arrives after a 501-day absence and that lengthy layoff is the obvious concern, compounded by a trainer firing at just 4% recently; he has run over today's distance and going before, though, and a speed rating of 73 gives him something to build on.
Form last 671/50-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
74SR73RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last four starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Little Wing faces a stiff ask here, though she has run over today's trip before and a 43-day freshener at least gives connections hope she returns in better order.
Form last 69900
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
32SR51RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Zheleznaya Dama shaped with promise two starts back, winning, and was second three starts back, but an unplaced effort last time out is the concern, and she ranks near the foot of our figures, making her difficult to recommend despite having run over today's trip.
Form last 6-P5210
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR60RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Kc Bear arrives here yet to win in his last five starts, with his most recent efforts a seventh and eighth, though he did finish second three starts back; a stiff 130 lb burden and a trainer in poor current form make improvement hard to foresee.
Form last 6-24287
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
69SR66RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Yet to score in his last six starts, Free Solo nevertheless brings distance and going experience to the table and a 29-day freshener could aid his cause; carrying 132 lb from stall eight and rated 68 by us, the second last time out offers some encouragement, though he has it all to do from tenth in the rankings.
Form last 6706592
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR68RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last three starts and returning after a 123-day absence, Prince Andorra faces a stiff ask from stall 13 carrying 129 lb, ranked 14 of 17 on our figures. He has run over today's trip and going before, but that is about as much as can be said in his favour.
Form last 6756
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR61RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last three starts, My Shayla does offer a second two starts back as encouragement, though sixth-place finishes either side of it temper expectations; she has run over today's trip and going, and steps up from a mark of 71 carrying 139 lb from stall 14.
Form last 6626
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR68RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
The Bear Trap owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Adrian McGuinnessAdam Caffrey
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Thaloria
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Miss Natalia Lupini✓ Value Signal
Battle Borne
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Patrick J McKenna◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
The Bear Trap holds the highest SR in the field at 74, giving it a meaningful ability edge over its nearest rivals (Kc Bear SR:69, Thaloria SR:68). At 9-6, it carries one of the lighter weights in the field despite that SR advantage — a significant lbs edge over Faoladh, Smoke Them Out, and Thaloria all on 10-0. The market has shortened 7% (Mkt:in7%) at 5/1, signalling stable confidence, and trainer Adrian McGuinness's decision to fit a visor for what appears to be a return run after a layoff (no Days shown, form reads '71/50-') suggests connections are expecting a sharper performance. DistFit and GoingFit are both listed as '?' due to limited sample, which is a caveat, but the SR dominance, weight advantage, and market support outweigh that uncertainty.
Each-way alternative: Kc Bear.
Main danger: Kc Bear — Kc Bear (SR:69, 4/1) is trained by the in-form Noel Meade (12% strike rate, 1166 runners) with W. J. Lee booked at 16% career strike rate — the strongest jockey-trainer combination in the field — and holds Course:W1P3, giving it proven specialist form that The Bear Trap cannot yet claim.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads '71/50-' with a dash indicating a last-run pull-up or non-completion, meaning The Bear Trap returns from a worrying exit rather than a straightforward absence — connections fitting a visor…
No Days figure shown suggests an extended layoff beyond the system's tracking window; returning cold into a 17-runner AW handicap at Dundalk without a recent racecourse spin is a significant fitness…
Both DistFit and GoingFit are '?' — for an AW-specific track like Dundalk, with its unique Polytrack surface, no proven course suitability is a concrete gap vs Thaloria (W1P2) and Kc Bear (W1P3) who…
Kc Bear at 4/1 (market favourite, shorter price) carries 9-4 vs The Bear Trap's 9-6, is trained by the high-strike Noel Meade with W. J. Lee (16% strike rate) up, and has been in recent form — the ma…
ShortlistThe Bear Trap, Kc Bear, Thaloria, Send Harry